Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6340 |
Random trend errors in climate station data due to inhomogeneities | |
Lindau, Ralf; Venema, Victor | |
2019-10-21 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | Inhomogeneities in station series are a large part of the uncertainty budget of long-term temperature trend estimates. This article introduces two analytical equations for the dependence of the station trend uncertainty on the statistical properties of the inhomogeneities. One equation is for inhomogeneities that act as random deviations from a fixed baseline, where the deviation levels are random and independent. The second equation is for inhomogeneities, which behave like Brownian Motion (BM), where not the levels themselves but the jumps between them are independent. It shows that BM-type breaks introduce much larger trend errors, growing linearly with the number of breaks. Using the information about type, strength, and frequency of the breaks for the United States and Germany, the random trend errors for these two countries are calculated for the period 1901-2000. An alternative and independent estimate is obtained by an empirical approach, exploiting the distance dependence of the trend variability for neighbouring station pairs. Both methods (empirical and analytical) find that the station trend uncertainty is larger in the United States (0.71 and 0.82 degrees C per century, respectively) than in Germany (0.50 and 0.58 degrees C per century, respectively). The good agreement of the analytical and the empirical estimate gives confidence in the methods to assess trend uncertainties, as well as in the method to determine the statistical properties of the break inhomogeneities. |
英文关键词 | break types Brownian motion climate stations homogenization inhomogeneities random deviations trend errors |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000491204900001 |
WOS关键词 | MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DATA ; HOMOGENIZATION ALGORITHMS ; SERIES ; SHIFTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187742 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Bonn, Inst Geosci & Meteorol, Hugel 20, D-53121 Bonn, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lindau, Ralf,Venema, Victor. Random trend errors in climate station data due to inhomogeneities[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Lindau, Ralf,&Venema, Victor.(2019).Random trend errors in climate station data due to inhomogeneities.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Lindau, Ralf,et al."Random trend errors in climate station data due to inhomogeneities".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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