Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02530-6 |
Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes' hydrological conditions in a changing climate | |
Mailhot, Edouard1,2; Music, Biljana1,3; Nadeau, Daniel F.4; Frigon, Anne3; Turcotte, Richard2 | |
2019-10-19 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | A set of 28 simulations from five regional climate models are used in this study to assess the Great Lakes' water supply from 1953 to 2100 following emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 with a focus on bi-weekly changes in the means and extremes of hydrological variables. Models are first evaluated by comparing annual cycles of precipitation, runoff, evaporation and net basin supply (NBS) with observations. Trends in mean values are then studied for each variable using Theil-Sen's statistical test. Changes in extreme conditions are analyzed using generalized extreme values distributions for a reference period (1971-2000) and two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100). Ensemble trend results show evaporation increases of 136 and 204 mm (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) over the Great Lakes between 1953 and 2100. Precipitation increases by 83 and 140 mm and runoff increases by 68 and 135 mm. Trends are not equally distributed throughout the year as seasonal changes differ greatly. As a result, Great Lakes net basin supply is expected to increase in winter and spring and decrease in summer. Over the entire year, NBS increases of 14 and 70 mm are projected for scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 respectively by the year 2100. An analysis of extreme values reveals that precipitation and NBS maxima increase by 11 to 27% and 1 to 9% respectively, while NBS minima decrease by 18 to 29% between 1971-2000 and 2041-2100. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000491942900001 |
WOS关键词 | CHANGE SCENARIOS ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; NORTH-AMERICA ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187717 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Laval, 1065 Av Med, Quebec City, PQ G1V 0A6, Canada; 2.Minist Environm & Lutte Changements Climat Quebec, 675 Rene Levesque Est, Quebec City, PQ G1R 5V7, Canada; 3.Ouranos Consortium Reg Climatol & Adaptat Climate, 550 Sherbrooke West,West Tower,19th Floor, Montreal, PQ H3A 1B9, Canada; 4.Univ Laval, Dept Civil & Water Engn, 1065 Av Med, Quebec City, PQ G1V 0A6, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mailhot, Edouard,Music, Biljana,Nadeau, Daniel F.,et al. Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes' hydrological conditions in a changing climate[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019. |
APA | Mailhot, Edouard,Music, Biljana,Nadeau, Daniel F.,Frigon, Anne,&Turcotte, Richard.(2019).Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes' hydrological conditions in a changing climate.CLIMATIC CHANGE. |
MLA | Mailhot, Edouard,et al."Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes' hydrological conditions in a changing climate".CLIMATIC CHANGE (2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论