Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019JD031210 |
Projected Changes in the Probability Distributions, Seasonality, and Spatiotemporal Scaling of Daily and Subdaily Extreme Precipitation Simulated by a 50-Member Ensemble Over Northeastern North America | |
Innocenti, S.1; Mailhot, A.1; Leduc, M.2; Cannon, A. J.3; Frigon, A.2 | |
2019-10-15 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | Global warming is expected to produce modifications in the intensity, as well as in the seasonality and spatiotemporal structure of extreme precipitation. In the present study, the temporal evolution of simulated daily and subdaily precipitation extremes was analyzed to assess how they respond to climate warming over different time horizons. Pooling series from the recent 50-member Canadian Regional Climate Model v5 Large Ensemble, the probability distributions, date and time of occurrences, and spatiotemporal structure of simulated Annual Maxima (AM) precipitation were analyzed at various spatial scales and for durations between 1 hr and 3 days. In agreement with previous studies, the results underline the large increases in AM precipitation quantiles, especially for the shortest durations and for the more extreme events (i.e., longest return periods), and modifications in their spatiotemporal scaling properties and annual and diurnal cycles. For instance, subdaily AM extremes are expected to occur later in the evening, while, no matter the duration, the extremes are expected to occur over a wider period of the year in future climate. Finally, the analysis of projected AM probability distributions showed that heavy-tail Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions will most likely be observed in the future climate, with some model grid boxes experiencing a significant increase of GEV shape parameters. These results may have major consequences in terms of the occurrence and possible impacts of the most extreme precipitation events. |
英文关键词 | extreme precipitation large ensemble climate change spatiotemporal scaling annual and diurnal cycles |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000492295600001 |
WOS关键词 | REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; FUTURE CHANGES ; CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ; INTENSE PRECIPITATION ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; HEAVY PRECIPITATION ; SPATIAL EXTENT ; DURATION ; FREQUENCY ; RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187671 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.ETE INRS, Quebec City, PQ, Canada; 2.Ouranos, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 3.ECCC, Div Climate Res, Victoria, BC, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Innocenti, S.,Mailhot, A.,Leduc, M.,et al. Projected Changes in the Probability Distributions, Seasonality, and Spatiotemporal Scaling of Daily and Subdaily Extreme Precipitation Simulated by a 50-Member Ensemble Over Northeastern North America[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019. |
APA | Innocenti, S.,Mailhot, A.,Leduc, M.,Cannon, A. J.,&Frigon, A..(2019).Projected Changes in the Probability Distributions, Seasonality, and Spatiotemporal Scaling of Daily and Subdaily Extreme Precipitation Simulated by a 50-Member Ensemble Over Northeastern North America.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES. |
MLA | Innocenti, S.,et al."Projected Changes in the Probability Distributions, Seasonality, and Spatiotemporal Scaling of Daily and Subdaily Extreme Precipitation Simulated by a 50-Member Ensemble Over Northeastern North America".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论