Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-019-0578-6 |
Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways | |
Takakura, Jun&1; 39;ya2 | |
2019-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 9期号:10页码:737-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan; South Korea; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | There are great uncertainties in the projected economic impacts of climate change(1), arising from uncertainties in the climate response(2), the climate change mitigation pathway(3) and the socioeconomic development pathway(4). Although the relative contributions of these factors are important for climate change related decision-making, they are poorly understood. Here, we show to what extent the projected economic impacts of climate change can be attributed to these three factors. Our modelling framework consisting of global, multisectoral impact models coupled with an integrated assessment model enables us to estimate the global total economic impacts of climate change while incorporating these uncertainty sources. Whereas the most pessimistic pathway without mitigation would result in a net economic impact equivalent to 6.6% (3.9-8.6%) of global gross domestic product at the end of this century, the pathways with stringent mitigation would limit the impact to around or less than 1%. Although the uncertainties are great, the climate change mitigation pathway is the dominant factor and socioeconomic developments can also contribute to alleviate the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that decisions on mitigation and development have a great influence in determining the economic impacts of climate change, regardless of the uncertainties in the climate response. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000487830200012 |
WOS关键词 | INTEGRATED MODEL ; PART 1 ; DAMAGE ; RISK ; CONSEQUENCES ; UNCERTAINTY ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; SCENARIOS ; FRAMEWORK |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187520 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 2.Kyoto Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Kyoto, Japan; 3.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Climate Change Adaptat, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 4.Ritsumeikan Univ, Coll Sci & Engn, Kusatsu, Japan; 5.Shibaura Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Tokyo, Japan; 6.Univ Tsukuba, Fac Hlth & Sport Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 7.Natl Agr & Food Res Org, Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 8.Ehime Univ, Grad Sch Agr, Matsuyama, Ehime, Japan; 9.Univ Seoul, Coll Urban Sci, Dept Landscape Architecture, Seoul, South Korea; 10.Ibaraki Univ, Inst Global Change Adaptat Sci, Mito, Ibaraki, Japan; 11.Nippon Koei, Tokyo, Japan; 12.Ibaraki Univ, Grad Sch Sci & Engn, Dept Civil Architectural & Environm Engn, Hitachi, Ibaraki, Japan; 13.North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China; 14.Univ Tokyo, Inst Future Initiatives, Tokyo, Japan; 15.United Nat Univ, Tokyo, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Takakura, Jun&,39;ya. Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019,9(10):737-+. |
APA | Takakura, Jun&,&39;ya.(2019).Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,9(10),737-+. |
MLA | Takakura, Jun&,et al."Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 9.10(2019):737-+. |
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