资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The Asian-African monsoonal precipitation (AAMP) has a significant impact on the water availability, biodiversity, and livelihoods of billions of people. A comprehensive understanding of the AAMP behavior over Earth's history will help to make better future projections. Using a set of transient climate simulations over the last 21 000 years (21 ka), the variation of the AAMP and its responses to various external forcings, including orbital insolation, greenhouse gases (GHGs), and ice sheets, are explored. The precipitation evolutions in the individual monsoon domains have the characteristic of hemispheric synchrony over the last 21 ka. Specifically, the AAMP increased from the Last Glacial Maximum to the early Holocene with several abrupt events and then decreased subsequently. The raised orbital insolation and GHGs lead to an overall AAMP increase, but the enhanced insolation tends to induce a systematic northward shift of the Asian-African monsoon domain. Decreased meltwater discharge could promote the African and Indian monsoonal precipitation through strengthening the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation. However, the lowering of ice sheets (i.e., orographic effect) results in an anomalous dipole precipitation pattern between North China and India. An analysis of the moisture budget suggests that, although different external forcings may lead to the same sign of precipitation change (e.g., both increased insolation and GHGs can cause the enhanced AAMP), the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to precipitation could vary greatly by region and forcing. This study provides a reference for the long-term behavior of the AAMP with rising GHGs, higher insolation, and potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet.