资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Numerous studies have investigated the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in modulating the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western Pacific on interannual time scales, but the effects of TCs on ENSO are less discussed. Some studies have found that TCs sharply increase surface westerly anomalies over the equatorial western-central Pacific and maintain them there for a few days. Given the strong influence of equatorial surface westerly wind bursts on ENSO, as confirmed by much recent literature, the effects of TCs on ENSO may be much greater than previously expected. Using recently released observations and reanalysis datasets, it is found that the majority of near-equatorial TCs (simply TCs hereafter) are associated with strong westerly anomalies at the equator, and the number and longitude of TCs are significantly correlated with ENSO strength. When TC-related wind stresses are added into an intermediate coupled model, the simulated ENSO becomes more irregular, and both ENSO magnitude and skewness approach those of observations, as compared with simulations without TCs. Adding TCs into the model system does not break the linkage between the heat content anomaly and subsequent ENSO event in the model, which manifest the classic recharge-discharge ENSO dynamics. However, the influence of TCs on ENSO is so strong that ENSO magnitude and sometimes its final state-that is, either El Nino or La Nina-largely depend on the number and timing of TCs during the event year. Our findings suggest that TCs play a prominent role in ENSO dynamics, and their effects must be considered in ENSO forecast models.