Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6114 |
The global warming hiatus has faded away: An analysis of 2014-2016 global surface air temperatures | |
Zhang, Chao1; Li, Shuanglin1,2,3; Luo, Feifei2; Huang, Zhen1 | |
2019-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 39期号:12页码:4853-4868 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | We present an analysis of the global annual mean surface temperature anomaly in 2014, 2015, and 2016 based on five datasets of historical observational records of surface temperature. These three years are the three warmest on record in all but one of the datasets. The largest warming occurred over land, especially at high latitudes. Since the strong El Nino event that occurred in 2015/2016 was similar to the 1997/1998 El Nino, we compared the 2014-2016 period with 1998, the warmest year in the 20th century. The contribution to the annual mean surface temperature anomaly of climate variations at different time scales was assessed using ensemble empirical mode decomposition. Results based on the HadCRUT4 dataset suggest that the interannual component may have contributed an anomaly of -0.01 degrees C in 2014, 0.12 degrees C in 2015, and 0.06 degrees C in 2016. These values are substantially lower than the contribution in 1998 (0.18 degrees C). In comparison, the combined contribution of the decadal-to-multidecadal (DM) component and the long-term warming trend was 0.64 degrees C in 2014, 0.70 degrees C in 2015, and 0.77 degrees C in 2016, which are substantially greater than that in 1998 (0.41 degrees C). Similar results were obtained using the other four datasets. The larger contribution from the DM component and the long-term warming trend implies that warmer years like 2014-2016 may occur more frequently in the near future. We conclude that the so-called warming hiatus has faded away. |
英文关键词 | global annual surface temperature record warming in recent years timescale separation warming hiatus |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000489003100019 |
WOS关键词 | ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION ; EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION ; EL-NINO ; CLIMATE RESPONSE ; ANNUAL CYCLE ; PACIFIC ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACTS ; ENSO ; CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187406 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.China Univ Geosci, Dept Atmospher Sci, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Climate Change Res Ctr, Inst Atmospher Phys, POB 9804, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Chao,Li, Shuanglin,Luo, Feifei,et al. The global warming hiatus has faded away: An analysis of 2014-2016 global surface air temperatures[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(12):4853-4868. |
APA | Zhang, Chao,Li, Shuanglin,Luo, Feifei,&Huang, Zhen.(2019).The global warming hiatus has faded away: An analysis of 2014-2016 global surface air temperatures.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(12),4853-4868. |
MLA | Zhang, Chao,et al."The global warming hiatus has faded away: An analysis of 2014-2016 global surface air temperatures".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.12(2019):4853-4868. |
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