资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Climate change is known as one of the key challenges of the 21st century for sustainable agricultural development over Southwest Asia. However, not much is known about the way that climate changes might affect precipitation, temperature, and climate zones as their consequence over Southwest Asia. Here we have analysed probable changes in modified Thornthwaite climate zones by using monthly temperature and precipitation data from 320 meteorological stations during the historical period of 1971-2015, as well as the future projections of 17 GCMs (General Circulation Models) outputs under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The CMIP5 climate projections were bias corrected using the correction factors derived in the historical period and applied to simulate future climatic conditions over Southwest Asia. Results derived from multi model ensemble projections of precipitation and temperature indicated that the regional mean annual temperature by the future period of 2071-2100 is expected to increase by 2.4 and 3.8 degrees C, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Also, except for the southern and eastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, by 2071-2100, the mean annual precipitation would significantly decrease by on average 6.2 and 7.5%, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Computing climate types based on averages from three climatic periods (1971-2015, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) showed that Southwest Asia tends to become warmer and dryer. For example, by the end of the 21st century, the percentage of the area occupied by the torrid-arid climate type (which already covers 13.8% of the total area) would be 29.3 and 36.4% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. These changes are important because they would definitely have profound ecological, hydrologic, and social consequences and may affect the basic components of sustainable agricultural systems like crop and livestock productions.