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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04849-3 |
Weak dependence of future global mean warming on the background climate state | |
Stolpe, Martin B.; Medhaug, Iselin; Beyerle, Urs; Knutti, Reto | |
2019-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:5079-5099 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland |
英文摘要 | It is debated whether the global mean transient temperature response to forcing is largely independent of biases in the simulated base state climate. To test this, we run the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) into new quasi-equilibria by altering the solar constant by +/- 25 Wm(-2) and initialize idealized CO2 climate change experiments from these climate states. The simulations branched off from the warm and control states, with increased and unaltered solar constant, respectively, show similar global mean feedback parameters, effective CO2 radiative forcings (ERF) and ocean heat uptake efficiencies and therefore simulate indiscernibly different amounts of global warming. The experiments starting from the cold climate state behave differently: The CO2 ERF is lower mostly because of rapid adjustments in the clouds, and the climate sensitivity is enhanced, mainly due to a large surface albedo feedback caused by the increased sea ice and snow coverage that extends to lower latitudes. The global heat uptake efficiency is reduced in the cold state. While taking up more heat in the Southern Ocean than the experiments from the warmer states much less heat is taken up by the North Atlantic. The less stabilizing net climate feedback parameter and the decreased ocean heat uptake efficiency dominate over the reduced CO2 ERF, and the simulations initialized from the cold state show similar to 10% more global warming compared to those from the control state. This enhanced warming mainly occurs at higher-latitudes over sea ice and snow-covered areas and the North Atlantic. While the local climate response may depend strongly on the base state, the future global mean temperature increase simulated by CESM1 is remarkably independent on the initial climate state. |
英文关键词 | State-dependence Transient climate response Climate sensitivity Radiative forcing Ocean heat uptake efficiency Meridional overturning circulation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000489753900074 |
WOS关键词 | OCEAN HEAT UPTAKE ; SOUTHERN-OCEAN ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; TROPOSPHERIC ADJUSTMENT ; OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; INCREASING CO2 ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; SYSTEM MODEL ; SEA-ICE ; SENSITIVITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187263 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stolpe, Martin B.,Medhaug, Iselin,Beyerle, Urs,et al. Weak dependence of future global mean warming on the background climate state[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:5079-5099. |
APA | Stolpe, Martin B.,Medhaug, Iselin,Beyerle, Urs,&Knutti, Reto.(2019).Weak dependence of future global mean warming on the background climate state.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,5079-5099. |
MLA | Stolpe, Martin B.,et al."Weak dependence of future global mean warming on the background climate state".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):5079-5099. |
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