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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04831-z |
Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling | |
Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg1,2,3; Larsen, Morten A. D.4; Christensen, Ole B.3; Drews, Martin4; Stendel, Martin3 | |
2019-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:4857-4869 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Denmark; Norway |
英文摘要 | How climate change will unfold in the years to come is a central topic in today's environmental debate, in particular at the regional level. While projections using large ensembles of global climate models consistently indicate a future decrease in summer precipitation over southern Europe and an increase over northern Europe, individual models substantially modulate these distinct signals of change in precipitation. So far model improvements and higher resolution from regional downscaling have not been seen as able to resolve these disagreements. In this paper we assess whether 2 decades of investments in large ensembles of downscaling experiments with regional climate model simulations for Europe have contributed to a more robust model assessment of the future climate at a range of geographical scales. We study climate change projections of European seasonal temperature and precipitation using an ensemble-suite comprised by all readily available pan-European regional model projections for the twenty-first-century, representing increasing model resolution from similar to 50 to similar to 12 km grid distance, as well as lateral boundary and sea surface temperature conditions from a variety of global model simulations. Employing a simple scaling with global mean temperature change we identify emerging robust signals of future seasonal temperature and precipitation changes also found to resemble current observed trends, where these are judged to be statistically significant. |
英文关键词 | Regional climate model ensembles PRUDENCE ENSEMBLES CORDEX Pattern scaling Climate projections |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000489753900062 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL ; SIMULATIONS ; IMPACT ; CORDEX ; PRECIPITATION ; UNCERTAINTIES ; CONFIDENCE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187251 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, DK-2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark; 2.Norwegian Res Ctr AS, NORCE, Bergen, Norway; 3.Danish Meteorol Inst, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark; 4.Tech Univ Denmark, Prod Storvet, Bldg 424, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg,Larsen, Morten A. D.,Christensen, Ole B.,et al. Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:4857-4869. |
APA | Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg,Larsen, Morten A. D.,Christensen, Ole B.,Drews, Martin,&Stendel, Martin.(2019).Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,4857-4869. |
MLA | Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg,et al."Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):4857-4869. |
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