资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Contributions to climate uncertainty in the modeling of the near surface temperature of the ocean come from several sources: the knowledge of the initial state of the atmosphere, the inadequacy of a model to include or correctly represent all aspects of the dynamics, the uncertain knowledge of the initial state of the ocean and small-scale (or internal, "weather") noise. This paper concentrates on the latter uncertainty, the uncertainty in the knowledge of the initial field, resulting in a map of the uncertainty of the near surface temperature field. To make the full estimate of this uncertainty, the outcomes from a relatively small, 30 member, ensemble were expanded using statistical emulators. The uncertainty varies in space and decreases in time. There are broad areas of similar uncertainty, consistent with uncertainties in the initial conditions and the variability in local processes. After 10 years, the average spatial uncertainty calculated from this expanded data set gives a range of +/- 0.4 degrees C with 95% of the spatial areas having an uncertainty of less than +/-0.9 degrees C. When compared to other estimates of similar metrics, the map represents a lower bound on the uncertainty because this first experiment examines the ocean/ice system in isolation from feedbacks that occur between the atmosphere and the ocean. This uncertainty also does not include any contribution from the lack of knowledge about how a future state of the air/ocean system will be forced by changes in greenhouse gases.