Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14828 |
Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability | |
McHenry, Jennifer1; Welch, Heather2,3; Lester, Sarah E.1; Saba, Vincent4 | |
2019-09-27 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Climate change is causing range shifts in many marine species, with implications for biodiversity and fisheries. Previous research has mainly focused on how species' ranges will respond to changing ocean temperatures, without accounting for other environmental covariates that could affect future distribution patterns. Here, we integrate habitat suitability modeling approaches, a high-resolution global climate model projection, and detailed fishery-independent and -dependent faunal datasets from one of the most extensively monitored marine ecosystems-the U.S. Northeast Shelf. We project the responses of 125 species in this region to climate-driven changes in multiple oceanographic factors (e.g., ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height) and seabed characteristics (i.e., rugosity and depth). Comparing model outputs based on ocean temperature and seabed characteristics to those that also incorporated salinity and sea surface height (proxies for primary productivity and ocean circulation features), we explored how an emphasis on ocean temperature in projecting species' range shifts can impact assessments of species' climate vulnerability. We found that multifactor habitat suitability models performed better in explaining and predicting species historical distribution patterns than temperature-based models. We also found that multifactor models provided more concerning assessments of species' future distribution patterns than temperature-based models, projecting that species' ranges will largely shift northward and become more contracted and fragmented over time. Our results suggest that using ocean temperature as a primary determinant of range shifts can significantly alter projections, masking species' climate vulnerability, and potentially forestalling proactive management. |
英文关键词 | climate change habitat suitability models marine species range shifts species vulnerability |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000487849500001 |
WOS关键词 | SCOTIAN SHELF-GULF ; DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; MULTIPLE STRESSORS ; SAMPLE-SIZE ; OCEAN ; IMPACTS ; FISHERIES ; SALINITY ; COASTAL ; SCALE |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187147 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Florida State Univ, Dept Geog, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA; 2.NOAA, NMFS, Southwest Fisheries Sci Ctr, Monterey, CA USA; 3.Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Inst Marine Sci, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA; 4.NOAA, NMFS, Northeast Fisheries Sci Ctr, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | McHenry, Jennifer,Welch, Heather,Lester, Sarah E.,et al. Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019. |
APA | McHenry, Jennifer,Welch, Heather,Lester, Sarah E.,&Saba, Vincent.(2019).Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY. |
MLA | McHenry, Jennifer,et al."Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY (2019). |
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