Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6258 |
Future projection of summer surface air temperature trend over central India: Role of external forcing and internal variability | |
Nath, Reshmita1,2; Luo, Yong1,2; Chen, Wen3 | |
2019-09-18 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the relative contribution of internal variability and external forcings on summer (June-August) surface air temperature (SAT) over the central Indian landmass. Here we use Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) data to assess the historical (1966-2005) and future (2010-2060) climate change in presence of internal climate variability. The summer SAT trend during the historical period exhibits an amplified cooling (<-3 degrees C), whereas a warming trend (>= 4 degrees C) is projected in all the ensemble members under RCP8.5 scenario. The total trend is then partitioned into contributions from the externally forced response and internal climatic variability. Over the Indian region, the external forcing displays a strong cooling trend during the historical period and warming trend under RCP8.5 scenario. On the other hand, natural variability displays mainly cooling trends and it introduces a wide range of uncertainty to the future projection in climate models. In historical period, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), that is, ratio of external forcings and internal variability, is less than 1, which indicates that the internal climatic variability dominates over the forced response. But in future decades the SNR is much higher than 1, that is, external forcing overrides the internal variability. However, to a greater extent natural variability will mask the warming trend over the Indian region, even under RCP8.5 scenario. |
英文关键词 | external forcings future projection natural variability SAT summer |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000486815900001 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; GANGETIC PLAIN ; AEROSOLS ; CLIMATE ; IMPACT ; GASES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187115 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Minist Educ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China; 2.Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Ctr Monsoon Syst Res, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nath, Reshmita,Luo, Yong,Chen, Wen. Future projection of summer surface air temperature trend over central India: Role of external forcing and internal variability[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Nath, Reshmita,Luo, Yong,&Chen, Wen.(2019).Future projection of summer surface air temperature trend over central India: Role of external forcing and internal variability.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Nath, Reshmita,et al."Future projection of summer surface air temperature trend over central India: Role of external forcing and internal variability".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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