Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-19-11383-2019 |
A double ITCZ phenomenology of wind errors in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal forecasts with ECMWF models | |
Shonk, Jonathan K. P.1; Demissie, Teferi D.2,3; Toniazzo, Thomas2 | |
2019-09-10 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 19期号:17页码:11383-11399 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Norway; Ethiopia |
英文摘要 | Modern coupled general circulation models produce systematic biases in the tropical Atlantic that hamper the reliability of long-range predictions. This study focuses on a common springtime westerly wind bias in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal hindcasts from two coupled models - ECMWF System 4 and EC-Earth v2.3 - and in hindcasts also based on System 4, but with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. The development of the equatorial westerly bias in early April is marked by a rapid transition from a wintertime easterly, cold tongue bias to a springtime westerly bias regime that displays a marked double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The transition is a seasonal feature of the model climatology (independent of initialisation date) and is associated with a seasonal increase in rainfall where a second branch of the ITCZ is produced south of the Equator. Excess off-equatorial convergence redirects the trade winds away from the Equator. Based on arguments of temporal coincidence, the results of our analysis contrast with those from previous work, and alleged causes hereto identified as the likely cause of the equatorial westerly bias in other models must be discarded. Quite in general, we find no evidence of remote influences on the development of the springtime equatorial bias in the Atlantic in the IFS-based models. Limited evidence however is presented that supports the hypothesis of an incorrect representation of the meridional equatorward flow in the marine boundary layer of the southern Atlantic as a contributing factor. Erroneous dynamical constraints on the flow upstream of the Equator may generate convergence and associated rainfall south of the Equator. This directs attention to the representation of the properties of the subtropical boundary layer as a potential source for the double ITCZ bias. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000485692200001 |
WOS关键词 | SST BIASES ; CLIMATE ; ORIGIN ; VARIABILITY ; SYSTEM ; MONSOON ; HINDCASTS ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186975 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England; 2.NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr AS, NORCE Climate, Bergen, Norway; 3.CGIAR Res Program Climate Change Agr & Food Secur, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shonk, Jonathan K. P.,Demissie, Teferi D.,Toniazzo, Thomas. A double ITCZ phenomenology of wind errors in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal forecasts with ECMWF models[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2019,19(17):11383-11399. |
APA | Shonk, Jonathan K. P.,Demissie, Teferi D.,&Toniazzo, Thomas.(2019).A double ITCZ phenomenology of wind errors in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal forecasts with ECMWF models.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,19(17),11383-11399. |
MLA | Shonk, Jonathan K. P.,et al."A double ITCZ phenomenology of wind errors in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal forecasts with ECMWF models".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 19.17(2019):11383-11399. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论