Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0 |
Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 degrees C world | |
Pfleiderer, Peter1,2,3; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich1,2,3; Kornhuber, Kai4,5,6; Coumou, Dim2,7 | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 9期号:9页码:666-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; USA; England; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Heat and rainfall extremes have intensified over the past few decades and this trend is projected to continue with future global warming(1-3). A long persistence of extreme events often leads to societal impacts with warm-and-dry conditions severely affecting agriculture and consecutive days of heavy rainfall leading to flooding. Here we report systematic increases in the persistence of boreal summer weather in a multi-model analysis of a world 2 degrees C above pre-industrial compared to present-day climate. Averaged over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land area, the probability of warm periods lasting longer than two weeks is projected to increase by 4% (2-6% full uncertainty range) after removing seasonal-mean warming. Compound dry-warm persistence increases at a similar magnitude on average but regionally up to 20% (11-42%) in eastern North America. The probability of at least seven consecutive days of strong precipitation increases by 26% (15-37%) for the mid-latitudes. We present evidence that weakening storm track activity contributes to the projected increase in warm and dry persistence. These changes in persistence are largely avoided when warming is limited to 1.5 degrees C. In conjunction with the projected intensification of heat and rainfall extremes, an increase in persistence can substantially worsen the effects of future weather extremes. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000483551700016 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE ; CIRCULATION ; EXTREMES ; WET |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186860 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Climate Analyt, Berlin, Germany; 2.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Earth Syst Anal, Potsdam, Germany; 3.Humboldt Univ, IRI THESys, Berlin, Germany; 4.Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, New York, NY USA; 5.Univ Oxford, Atmospher Ocean & Planetary Phys, Oxford, England; 6.Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; 7.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Water & Climate Risk, IVM, Amsterdam, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pfleiderer, Peter,Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich,Kornhuber, Kai,et al. Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 degrees C world[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019,9(9):666-+. |
APA | Pfleiderer, Peter,Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich,Kornhuber, Kai,&Coumou, Dim.(2019).Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 degrees C world.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,9(9),666-+. |
MLA | Pfleiderer, Peter,et al."Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 degrees C world".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 9.9(2019):666-+. |
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