资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Unlike in other parts of the Asian Monsoon region, the summer monsoon in the Northwestern Maritime Continent (NwMC) is relatively dry. Hence, an objective definition is needed in order to determine the arrival of the dry season in this particular sub-region. Criteria for the objective definition of summer monsoon onset in the NwMC were defined based on reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) databases. Considering the Matsuno-Gill theoretical relationship between tropical precipitation and low-level winds, the summer monsoon onset date can be determined objectively based on the commencement of the sustained 850-hPa zonal winds averaged over the area from 5 degrees to 10 degrees N and from 100 degrees to 115 degrees E. The establishment of steady westerly/southwesterly winds over the NwMC region is consistent with the abrupt shift of rainfall from the equatorial region (5 degrees S-5 degrees N) to areas north of the equator. The onset is also associated with the northeastward propagation of anomalous convection from the western equatorial Indian Ocean on an intraseasonal time scale. In view of its representation of large-scale circulation and objectiveness, this new monsoon onset index will provide a useful metric with which to predict NwMC summer monsoon onset and for studying the interannual variation in monsoon onset. A simple lead-lag correlation shows the monsoon onset in NwMC has a close relationship with ENSO. Generally an early (late) monsoon onset can be expected when cold (warm) ENSO event occurred in the preceding summer.