Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.05.002 |
Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation | |
Guo, Yingjian; Hawkes, Adam | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 132页码:132-155 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | This paper analyses the scale of asset stranding of global natural gas production and transmission infrastructure between 2015 and 2060 using Gas-GAME-Spot, an agent-based gas-sector model. It extends the existing modelling efforts by considering contract constraints in short-term gas sales and explicitly simulating trade in two types of spot markets. The study also contributes to the methodologies of stranded asset analysis by taking into account two aspects which are commonly overlooked: market fluctuation subject to the changing export capacities and the impacts of market signals on investor decision making. The results of the base scenario indicate that if gas demand follows current policy expectations, the scale of asset stranding is likely to be limited. This is attributed to supply capacity shortage of medium-sized exporters due to a slowing of their investment. Moreover, two alternative scenarios show that, when the markets face sudden reduction in demand, they leverage the flexibilities in their long-term contracts and opt more gas through spot trade. Though the issue of stranding is not significant globally in these scenarios, exporting regions with high short-run delivery costs, especially North America and Australia, have higher risks of asset stranding as they are arguably less competitive in spot sales. |
英文关键词 | Agent-based modelling Natural gas asset stranding Contract-driven investment Spot trade simulation Market signalling Investors' responses to markets |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000483425800015 |
WOS关键词 | COMPLEMENTARITY MODEL ; MARKET ; EQUILIBRIUM ; INVESTMENT ; PROGRAMS ; POWER |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186486 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Imperial Coll London, Dept Chem Engn, London SW7 2AZ, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guo, Yingjian,Hawkes, Adam. Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019,132:132-155. |
APA | Guo, Yingjian,&Hawkes, Adam.(2019).Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation.ENERGY POLICY,132,132-155. |
MLA | Guo, Yingjian,et al."Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation".ENERGY POLICY 132(2019):132-155. |
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