Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02529-z |
Real options analysis of climate-change adaptation: investment flexibility and extreme weather events | |
Guthrie, Graeme | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
![]() |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 156页码:231-253 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | New Zealand |
英文摘要 | Investments in climate-change adaptation will have to be made while the extent of climate change is uncertain. However, some important sources of uncertainty will fall over time as more climate data become available. This paper investigates the effect on optimal investment decision-making of learning that reduces uncertainty. It develops a simple real options method to value options that are found in many climate-change adaptation contexts. This method modifies a binomial tree model frequently applied to climate-change adaptation problems, incorporating gradual learning using a Bayesian updating process driven by new observations of extreme events. It is used to investigate the timing, scale, or upgradable design of an adaptation project. Recognition that we might have more or different information in the future makes flexibility valuable. The amount of value added by flexibility and the ways in which flexibility should be exploited depend on how fast we learn about climate change. When learning will occur quickly, the value of the option to delay investment is high. When learning will occur slowly, the value of the option to build a small low-risk project instead of a large high-risk one is high. For intermediate cases, the option to build a small project that can be expanded in the future is high. The approach in this paper can support efficient decision-making on adaptation projects by anticipating that we gradually learn about climate change by the recurrence of extreme events. |
英文关键词 | Climate change Adaptation Real options Cost-benefit analysis Learning |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000491987900013 |
WOS关键词 | FLOOD RISK-MANAGEMENT ; UNCERTAINTY ; PATHWAYS ; BENEFITS ; COSTS ; WATER |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186412 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Victoria Univ Wellington, Sch Econ & Finance, POB 600, Wellington 6140, New Zealand |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guthrie, Graeme. Real options analysis of climate-change adaptation: investment flexibility and extreme weather events[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,156:231-253. |
APA | Guthrie, Graeme.(2019).Real options analysis of climate-change adaptation: investment flexibility and extreme weather events.CLIMATIC CHANGE,156,231-253. |
MLA | Guthrie, Graeme."Real options analysis of climate-change adaptation: investment flexibility and extreme weather events".CLIMATIC CHANGE 156(2019):231-253. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
查看访问统计 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Guthrie, Graeme]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Guthrie, Graeme]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Guthrie, Graeme]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论