Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02491-w |
Climate change increases potential plant species richness on Puerto Rican uplands | |
Henareh Khalyani, Azad1; Gould, William A.2; Falkowski, Michael J.1; Muscarella, Robert3; Uriarte, Maria4; Yousef, Foad5 | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 156页码:15-30 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Denmark |
英文摘要 | Modeling climate change effects on species and communities is critical especially in isolated islands. We analyzed the potential effects of climate change on 200 plant species in Puerto Rico under two emission scenarios and in four periods over the twenty-first century. Our approach was based on ensemble bioclimatic modeling using eight modeling algorithms and community richness analysis. Our findings showed that the probabilities of environmental suitability decline for wet climate species and increase for drier and warm climate species in the future periods under both emission scenarios, with stronger effects under the higher emission scenario. Expansion of dry climate species to higher elevations appears to be a prominent response of species to climatic change in the island based on changes in environmental suitability but the actual species redistribution will be influenced by their life histories, potential adaptation, dispersal abilities, species introductions, and species interactions. This potential movement leads to a spatial pattern of species richness at site level that shows a positive relationship with elevation, which becomes stronger in the later periods of the century. The spatial pattern of species richness, if combined with single species projections, can provide critical information for conservation management in the island. Conservation management can support island-wide biological diversity by protecting the wet climate species on the uplands. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000491987900002 |
WOS关键词 | DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; COMMUNITIES ; FRAMEWORK ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; CONSERVATION ; PATTERNS ; NICHES ; AREAS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186408 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, 1499 Campus Delivery, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 2.US Forest Serv, Int Inst Trop Forestry, USDA, San Juan, PR USA; 3.Aarhus Univ, Dept Biosci Ecoinformat & Biodivers, Aarhus, Denmark; 4.Columbia Univ, Dept Ecol Evolut & Environm Biol, New York, NY USA; 5.Westminster Coll, Dept Biol, Salt Lake City, UT USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Henareh Khalyani, Azad,Gould, William A.,Falkowski, Michael J.,et al. Climate change increases potential plant species richness on Puerto Rican uplands[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,156:15-30. |
APA | Henareh Khalyani, Azad,Gould, William A.,Falkowski, Michael J.,Muscarella, Robert,Uriarte, Maria,&Yousef, Foad.(2019).Climate change increases potential plant species richness on Puerto Rican uplands.CLIMATIC CHANGE,156,15-30. |
MLA | Henareh Khalyani, Azad,et al."Climate change increases potential plant species richness on Puerto Rican uplands".CLIMATIC CHANGE 156(2019):15-30. |
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