Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02536-0 |
Revised estimates of paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years | |
Snyder, Carolyn W. | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 156页码:121-138 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study evaluates paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years from proxy-based reconstructions of changes in global temperature, ice sheets and sea level, vegetation, dust, and greenhouse gases. This analysis uses statistical methods that are not biased by the variable (heteroscedastic) uncertainty in the reconstructions, and applies a Monte Carlo-style probabilistic framework to quantify several sources of measurement and structural uncertainty. Not addressing the heteroscedastic uncertainty would result in regression results that underestimate paleoclimate sensitivity by over 30%, and not using a probabilistic framework could underestimate the credible interval by fivefold. A comparison of changes in global temperature (Delta T) and changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, ice sheets, dust, and vegetation (Delta R-[GHG,R-LI,R-AE,R-VG]) over the past 800 kyr finds that the two are closely coupled across glacial cycles with a correlation of 0.81 (0.6 to 0.9, 95% credible interval). The variation of Delta T with Delta R over the past 800 kyr is non-linear, with lower correlation and lower responsiveness at colder temperatures. The paleoclimate sensitivity parameter estimates (S-[GHG,S-LI,S-AE,S-VG]) are 0.84 degrees C/W/m(2) (0.20 to 1.9 degrees C/W/m(2), 95% interval) for interglacial periods and intermediate glacial climates and 0.53 degrees C/W/m(2) (0.08 to 1.5 degrees C/W/m(2), 95% interval) for full glacial climates, 37% lower at the median. The estimates of S-[GHG,S-LI,S-AE,S-VG] and the pattern of state dependence are similar across glacial cycles over the past 800 kyr. This analysis explicitly includes several sources of uncertainty and is still able to provide a strong upper bound for the paleoclimate sensitivity parameter for interglacial periods and intermediate glacial climates: over 1.5 degrees C/W/m(2) is < 10% probability, 1.7 degrees C/W/m(2) is < 5% probability, and over 1.9 degrees C/W/m(2) is < 2.5% probability. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000491987900007 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ; GLACIAL CYCLES ; OCEAN TEMPERATURE ; STATE DEPENDENCY ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; ICE-CORE ; CO2 ; EVOLUTION ; FUTURE ; AGE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186405 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Stanford Univ, Interdisciplinary Program Environm & Resources, Stanford, CA 94305 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Snyder, Carolyn W.. Revised estimates of paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,156:121-138. |
APA | Snyder, Carolyn W..(2019).Revised estimates of paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years.CLIMATIC CHANGE,156,121-138. |
MLA | Snyder, Carolyn W.."Revised estimates of paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years".CLIMATIC CHANGE 156(2019):121-138. |
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