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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04720-5 |
Southern African summer-rainfall variability, and its teleconnections, on interannual to interdecadal timescales in CMIP5 models | |
Dieppois, Bastien1,2,3; Pohl, Benjamin4; Cretat, Julien4,5; Eden, Jonathan1; Sidibe, Moussa1; New, Mark6; Rouault, Mathieu2,7; Lawler, Damian1 | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:3505-3527 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; South Africa; France |
英文摘要 | This study provides the first assessment of CMIP5 model performances in simulating southern Africa (SA) rainfall variability in austral summer (Nov-Feb), and its teleconnections with large-scale climate variability at different timescales. Observed SA rainfall varies at three major timescales: interannual (2-8 years), quasi-decadal (8-13 years; QDV) and interdecadal (15-28 years; IDV). These rainfall fluctuations are, respectively, associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), interacting with climate anomalies in the South Atlantic and South Indian Ocean. CMIP5 models produce their own variability, but perform better in simulating interannual rainfall variability, while QDV and IDV are largely underestimated. These limitations can be partly explained by spatial shifts in core regions of SA rainfall variability in the models. Most models reproduce the impact of La Nina on rainfall at the interannual scale in SA, in spite of limitations in the representation of ENSO. Realistic links between negative IPO are found in some models at the QDV scale, but very poor performances are found at the IDV scale. Strong limitations, i.e. loss or reversal of these teleconnections, are also noted in some simulations. Such model errors, however, do not systematically impact the skill of simulated rainfall variability. This is because biased SST variability in the South Atlantic and South Indian Oceans strongly impact model skills by modulating the impact of Pacific modes of variability. Using probabilistic multi-scale clustering, model uncertainties in SST variability are primarily driven by differences from one model to another, or comparable models (sharing similar physics), at the global scale. At the regional scale, i.e. SA rainfall variability and associated teleconnections, while differences in model physics remain a large source of uncertainty, the contribution of internal climate variability is increasing. This is particularly true at the QDV and IDV scales, where the individual simulations from the same model tend to differentiate, and the sampling error increase. |
英文关键词 | Southern African rainfall variability Interannual to interdecadal timescales Sea-surface temperature anomalies Teleconnections CMIP5 models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000483626900060 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; SST DIPOLE EVENTS ; EL-NINO ; CLIMATE PREDICTION ; PART I ; PACIFIC ; ENSO ; PRECIPITATION ; CIRCULATION ; ATLANTIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186388 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Coventry Univ, CAWR, Coventry, W Midlands, England; 2.Univ Cape Town, MARE Inst, Dept Oceanog, Cape Town, South Africa; 3.Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham, W Midlands, England; 4.Univ Bourgogne Franche Comte, CNRS, UMR 6282 Biogeosci, Ctr Rech Climatol, Dijon, France; 5.Univ Paris Saclay, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, IPSL, Gif Sur Yvette, France; 6.Univ Cape Town, African Climate & Dev Initiat, Cape Town, South Africa; 7.Univ Cape Town, Nansen Tutu Ctr Marine Environm Res, Cape Town, South Africa |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dieppois, Bastien,Pohl, Benjamin,Cretat, Julien,et al. Southern African summer-rainfall variability, and its teleconnections, on interannual to interdecadal timescales in CMIP5 models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:3505-3527. |
APA | Dieppois, Bastien.,Pohl, Benjamin.,Cretat, Julien.,Eden, Jonathan.,Sidibe, Moussa.,...&Lawler, Damian.(2019).Southern African summer-rainfall variability, and its teleconnections, on interannual to interdecadal timescales in CMIP5 models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,3505-3527. |
MLA | Dieppois, Bastien,et al."Southern African summer-rainfall variability, and its teleconnections, on interannual to interdecadal timescales in CMIP5 models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):3505-3527. |
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