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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04651-1 |
Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects | |
Wang, Chao1,2,3,4; Wang, Bin1,2,3,4 | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:2697-2714 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans were suggested to explain inter-annual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). Here we show that the influences of these "trans-basin" SST anomalies in the three oceans can be collectively understood via two leading modes of variability of WNP subtropical high (WNPSH). The first mode, which is forced by SST anomalies in the eastern-central Pacific and tropical Atlantic, can shift TC formation locations southeastward/northwestward, but has insignificant influence on the total TC genesis number, albeit affects the TC tracks, total number of tropical storm days, and power dissipation index (PDI). The second mode, which is a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode associated with a dipole SST anomaly in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, has a significant control on the total TC genesis number. A set of physics-based empirical models is built to predict the two WNPSH modes and TC activity (genesis number, tropical storm days and PDI) in the peak TC season (July-September) with preceding season trans-basin SST predictors. The predictions capture very well the inter-annual variabilities of the WNPSH and reasonably well the variability of WNP TC activity. These results thus establish a unified framework to understand and forecast the inter-annual variability in TC activity over the WNP. |
英文关键词 | Western North Pacific Subtropical high Tropical cyclone Seasonal prediction Inter-annual variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000483626900013 |
WOS关键词 | UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ; NORTH PACIFIC ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; EL-NINO ; MONSOON TROUGH ; INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY ; SEASONAL PREDICTION ; COMBINATION-MODE ; OCEAN CAPACITOR ; STORM FORMATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186341 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster,Minist Educ, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Pacific Typhoon Res Ctr, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 4.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Chao,Wang, Bin. Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:2697-2714. |
APA | Wang, Chao,&Wang, Bin.(2019).Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,2697-2714. |
MLA | Wang, Chao,et al."Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):2697-2714. |
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