Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6265 |
Stationary and non-stationary detection of extreme precipitation events and trends of average precipitation from 1980 to 2010 in the Parana River basin, Brazil | |
Freitas Xavier, Ana Carolina1; Rudke, Anderson Paulo2; Fujita, Thais3; Blain, Gabriel Constantino1; Bueno de Morais, Marcos Vinicius4; de Almeida, Daniela Sanches5; Abou Rafee, Sameh Adib6,7; Martins, Leila Droprinchinski3; Ferreira de Souza, Rodrigo Augusto8; de Freitas, Edimilson Dias6; Martins, Jorge Alberto3 | |
2019-08-29 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Brazil; Chile; Sweden |
英文摘要 | The main objective of this study was to investigate the trends on average and extreme events in time series of daily precipitation from 1980 to 2010 in the Parana River basin, Brazil. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect monotonic trend in the precipitation series. The occurrence of extreme values was analysed based on three generalized extreme values (GEV) models: Model 1 (stationary), Model 2 (non-stationary for location parameter), and Model 3 (non-stationary for location and scale parameters). The GEV parameters were estimated by the Generalized Maximum Likelihood method (GMLE) and for the non-stationary models, the parameters were estimated as linear functions of time. To choose the most suitable model, the maximum likelihood ratio test (D) was used. From the results observed at the monthly scale, it was possible to infer that the months with the highest probability of an extreme weather event occurrence are February (climates Aw and Cfa), July (Cfa and Cfb), and October (Aw, Cfa, and Cfb). Approximately 90% of the 1,112 stations presented no trend regarding the GEV parameters. The non-stationarity showed by other stations (Models 2 and 3) might be associated with several factors, such as the alteration of land use due to the north expansion of the agricultural border of the Parana River basin. |
英文关键词 | Brazil climate change GEV linear distributions monthly non-stationary rainfall tropical and subtropical |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000484299100001 |
WOS关键词 | MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ; SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH-AMERICA ; LARGE-SCALE ; ANNUAL MAXIMUM ; FREQUENCY-DISTRIBUTION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LAND-USE ; RAINFALL ; TEMPERATURE ; PATTERNS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186298 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Agron Inst, Campinas, SP, Brazil; 2.Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil; 3.Univ Tecnol Fed Parana, Londrina, Brazil; 4.Catholic Univ Maule Talca, Maule, Chile; 5.Univ Estadual Maringa, Maringa, Parana, Brazil; 6.Univ Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; 7.Lund Univ, Lund, Sweden; 8.Amazonas State Univ, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Freitas Xavier, Ana Carolina,Rudke, Anderson Paulo,Fujita, Thais,et al. Stationary and non-stationary detection of extreme precipitation events and trends of average precipitation from 1980 to 2010 in the Parana River basin, Brazil[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Freitas Xavier, Ana Carolina.,Rudke, Anderson Paulo.,Fujita, Thais.,Blain, Gabriel Constantino.,Bueno de Morais, Marcos Vinicius.,...&Martins, Jorge Alberto.(2019).Stationary and non-stationary detection of extreme precipitation events and trends of average precipitation from 1980 to 2010 in the Parana River basin, Brazil.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Freitas Xavier, Ana Carolina,et al."Stationary and non-stationary detection of extreme precipitation events and trends of average precipitation from 1980 to 2010 in the Parana River basin, Brazil".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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