Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL084223 |
Enhancing Skill of Initialized Decadal Predictions Using a Dynamic Model of Drift | |
Nadiga, Balasubramanya T.; Verma, Tarun; Weijer, Wilbert; Urban, Nathan M. | |
2019-08-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:16页码:9991-9999 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Since near-term predictions of present-day climate are controlled by both initial condition predictability and boundary condition predictability, initialized prediction experiments aim to augment the external-forcing-related predictability realized in uninitialized projections with initial-condition-related predictability by appropriate observation-based initialization. However, and notwithstanding the considerable effort expended in finding such "good" initial states, a striking feature of current, state-of-the-art, initialized decadal hindcasts is their tendency to quickly drift away from the initialized state, with attendant loss of skill. We derive a dynamical model for such drift, and after validating it we show that including a recalibrated version of the model in a postprocessing framework is able to significantly augment the skill of initialized predictions beyond that achieved by a use of current techniques of postprocessing alone. We also show that the new methodology provides further crucial insights into issues related to initialized predictions. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000490966700074 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE PREDICTIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; FIELD |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186284 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Los Alamos Natl Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nadiga, Balasubramanya T.,Verma, Tarun,Weijer, Wilbert,et al. Enhancing Skill of Initialized Decadal Predictions Using a Dynamic Model of Drift[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(16):9991-9999. |
APA | Nadiga, Balasubramanya T.,Verma, Tarun,Weijer, Wilbert,&Urban, Nathan M..(2019).Enhancing Skill of Initialized Decadal Predictions Using a Dynamic Model of Drift.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(16),9991-9999. |
MLA | Nadiga, Balasubramanya T.,et al."Enhancing Skill of Initialized Decadal Predictions Using a Dynamic Model of Drift".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.16(2019):9991-9999. |
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