GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2019GL084402
Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective
Parker, Tess1; 39;Reilly, Chris2
2019-08-28
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2019
卷号46期号:16页码:10159-10167
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England; Australia
英文摘要

The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has varied on interannual and decadal timescales over the last century, associated with variations in the speed and latitude of the eddy-driven jet stream. This paper uses hindcasts from two operational seasonal forecast systems (the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts's seasonal forecast system, and the U.K. Met Office global seasonal forecast system) and a century-long atmosphere-only experiment (using the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts's Integrated Forecasting System model) to relate seasonal prediction skill in the NAO to these aspects of jet variability. This shows that the NAO skill realized so far arises from interannual variations in the jet, largely associated with its latitude rather than speed. There likely remains further potential for predictability on longer, decadal timescales. In the small sample of models analyzed here, improved representation of the structure of jet variability does not translate to enhanced seasonal forecast skill.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000490966700092
WOS关键词PREDICTIVE SKILL ; VARIABILITY ; RANGE
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186207
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford, England;
2.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic, Australia;
3.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, Reading, Berks, England;
4.Univ Oxford, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Dept Phys, Oxford, England;
5.Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England
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GB/T 7714
Parker, Tess,39;Reilly, Chris. Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(16):10159-10167.
APA Parker, Tess,&39;Reilly, Chris.(2019).Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(16),10159-10167.
MLA Parker, Tess,et al."Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.16(2019):10159-10167.
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