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DOI | 10.1029/2019GL084402 |
Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective | |
Parker, Tess1; 39;Reilly, Chris2 | |
2019-08-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:16页码:10159-10167 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Australia |
英文摘要 | The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has varied on interannual and decadal timescales over the last century, associated with variations in the speed and latitude of the eddy-driven jet stream. This paper uses hindcasts from two operational seasonal forecast systems (the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts's seasonal forecast system, and the U.K. Met Office global seasonal forecast system) and a century-long atmosphere-only experiment (using the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts's Integrated Forecasting System model) to relate seasonal prediction skill in the NAO to these aspects of jet variability. This shows that the NAO skill realized so far arises from interannual variations in the jet, largely associated with its latitude rather than speed. There likely remains further potential for predictability on longer, decadal timescales. In the small sample of models analyzed here, improved representation of the structure of jet variability does not translate to enhanced seasonal forecast skill. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000490966700092 |
WOS关键词 | PREDICTIVE SKILL ; VARIABILITY ; RANGE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186207 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford, England; 2.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic, Australia; 3.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, Reading, Berks, England; 4.Univ Oxford, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Dept Phys, Oxford, England; 5.Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Parker, Tess,39;Reilly, Chris. Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(16):10159-10167. |
APA | Parker, Tess,&39;Reilly, Chris.(2019).Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(16),10159-10167. |
MLA | Parker, Tess,et al."Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.16(2019):10159-10167. |
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