Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL082442 |
Underestimating Internal Variability Leads to Narrow Estimates of Climate System Properties | |
Libardoni, Alex G.1,2; Forest, Chris E.1,3; Sokolov, Andrei P.4; Monier, Erwan4,5 | |
2019-08-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:16页码:10000-10007 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Probabilistic estimates of climate system properties often rely on the comparison of model simulations to observed temperature records and an estimate of the internal climate variability. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of probability distributions for climate system properties in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model to the internal variability estimate. In particular, we derive probability distributions using the internal variability extracted from 25 different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. We further test the sensitivity by pooling variability estimates from models with similar characteristics. We find the distributions to be highly sensitive when estimating the internal variability from a single model. When merging the variability estimates across multiple models, the distributions tend to converge to a wider distribution for all properties. This suggests that using a single model to approximate the internal climate variability produces distributions that are too narrow and do not fully represent the uncertainty in the climate system property estimates. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000490966700075 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL ; SENSITIVITY |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186190 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.Colorado State Univ, Cooperat Inst Res Atmosphere, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 3.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 4.MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 5.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Land Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA 95616 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Libardoni, Alex G.,Forest, Chris E.,Sokolov, Andrei P.,et al. Underestimating Internal Variability Leads to Narrow Estimates of Climate System Properties[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(16):10000-10007. |
APA | Libardoni, Alex G.,Forest, Chris E.,Sokolov, Andrei P.,&Monier, Erwan.(2019).Underestimating Internal Variability Leads to Narrow Estimates of Climate System Properties.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(16),10000-10007. |
MLA | Libardoni, Alex G.,et al."Underestimating Internal Variability Leads to Narrow Estimates of Climate System Properties".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.16(2019):10000-10007. |
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