Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.03.063 |
Consistency and robustness of forecasting for emerging technologies: The case of Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles | |
Sakti, Apurba1; Azevedo, Ines M. L.2; Fuchs, Erica R. H.2; Michalek, Jeremy J.2,3; Gallagher, Kevin G.4; Whitacre, Jay F.2,5 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 106 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | There are a large number of accounts about rapidly declining costs of batteries with potentially transformative effects, but these accounts often are not based on detailed design and technical information. Using a method ideally suited for that purpose, we find that when experts are free to assume any battery pack design, a majority of the cost estimates are consistent with the ranges reported in the literature, although the range is notably large. However, we also find that 55% of relevant experts' component-level cost projections are inconsistent with their total pack-level projections, and 55% of relevant experts' elicited cost projections are inconsistent with the cost projections generated by putting their design-and process-level assumptions into our process based cost model (PBCM). These results suggest a need for better understanding of the technical assumptions driving popular consensus regarding future costs. Approaches focusing on technological details first, followed by non-aggregated and systemic cost estimates while keeping the experts aware of any discrepancies, should they arise, may result in more accurate forecasts. |
英文关键词 | Electric vehicle Lithium-ion battery Battery design Expert elicitation Technology forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402343600041 |
WOS关键词 | COST ESTIMATION ; PRODUCT DESIGN ; FUTURE COSTS ; ELICITATION ; PHOTOVOLTAICS ; DECOMPOSITION ; PROBABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; SUPPORT ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18616 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.MIT, MIT Energy Initiat, 77 Massachusetts Ave,Room 341L, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 2.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, 5000 Forbes Ave,Baker 129, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA; 3.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Mech Engn, 5000 Forbes Ave,Scaffe Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA; 4.Argonne Natl Lab, Chem Sci & Engn Div, 9700 S Cass Ave, Argonne, IL 60439 USA; 5.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Mat Sci & Engn, 5000 Forbes Ave,Wean Hall 3325, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sakti, Apurba,Azevedo, Ines M. L.,Fuchs, Erica R. H.,et al. Consistency and robustness of forecasting for emerging technologies: The case of Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2017,106. |
APA | Sakti, Apurba,Azevedo, Ines M. L.,Fuchs, Erica R. H.,Michalek, Jeremy J.,Gallagher, Kevin G.,&Whitacre, Jay F..(2017).Consistency and robustness of forecasting for emerging technologies: The case of Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles.ENERGY POLICY,106. |
MLA | Sakti, Apurba,et al."Consistency and robustness of forecasting for emerging technologies: The case of Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles".ENERGY POLICY 106(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论