Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019JD031024 |
Tropospheric and Stratospheric Causal Pathways Between the MJO and NAO | |
Barnes, Elizabeth A.1; Samarasinghe, Savini M.2; Ebert-Uphoff, Imme2; Furtado, Jason C.3 | |
2019-08-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:16页码:9356-9371 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Previous work has shown that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can influence the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) via a Rossby wave teleconnection that propagates through the troposphere (i.e., a tropospheric pathway). In addition, recent work suggests that the MJO can influence the stratospheric polar vortex, which is also known to influence the tropospheric NAO-thus, there likely exists a stratospheric pathway for MJO influence as well. Here, we apply two methods to shed more light on the pathways linking the MJO to the NAO. First, we use a traditional approach in climate science based on analyzing conditional probabilities. Second, we use methods from causal discovery theory based on probabilistic graphical models. Together, these two analysis approaches reveal that the MJO can impact the NAO via both a tropospheric and stratospheric pathway. The stratospheric pathway is shown to come about in two ways: First, both methods show that the MJO itself influences the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex on a timescale of similar to 10 days, and then 5 days later the vortex can drive changes in the NAO. Second, the state of the stratospheric polar vortex acts to condition the NAO to be conducive (or not) to MJO influence. When the vortex is in a state that opposes the expected NAO response to the MJO, we find little influence of the MJO on the NAO, however, when the vortex supports the expected NAO response, the NAO is up to 30% more likely to be in a particular state following active MJO periods. |
英文关键词 | MJO NAO causal discovery S2S prediction |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000490762800026 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; POLAR VORTEX ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; WEATHER ; MODULATION ; PREDICTION ; RANGE ; TELECONNECTIONS ; TEMPERATURES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186162 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 2.Colorado State Univ, Elect & Comp Engn, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 3.Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Barnes, Elizabeth A.,Samarasinghe, Savini M.,Ebert-Uphoff, Imme,et al. Tropospheric and Stratospheric Causal Pathways Between the MJO and NAO[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(16):9356-9371. |
APA | Barnes, Elizabeth A.,Samarasinghe, Savini M.,Ebert-Uphoff, Imme,&Furtado, Jason C..(2019).Tropospheric and Stratospheric Causal Pathways Between the MJO and NAO.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(16),9356-9371. |
MLA | Barnes, Elizabeth A.,et al."Tropospheric and Stratospheric Causal Pathways Between the MJO and NAO".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.16(2019):9356-9371. |
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