Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR024462 |
Effectiveness of CMIP5 Decadal Experiments for Interannual Rainfall Prediction Over Australia | |
Choudhury, Dipayan1,2,3; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar1; Sharma, Ashish1; Sen Gupta, Alexander2,4; Sivakumar, Bellie1,5 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 55期号:8页码:7400-7418 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; South Korea; India |
英文摘要 | Phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project enabled a range of decadal modeling experiments where climate models were initialized with observations and allowed to evolve freely for 10-30 years. However, climate models struggle to realistically simulate rainfall and the skill of rainfall prediction in decadal experiments is poor. Here, we examine how predictions of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) indices from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 decadal experiments can provide skillful rainfall forecasts at interannual timescales for Australia. Forecasts of commonly used SSTA indices relevant to Australian seasonal rainfall are derived from decadal hindcasts of six different climate models and corrected for model drift. The corrected indices are then combined to form a multimodel ensemble. The resultant forecasts are used as predictors in a statistical rainfall model developed in this study. As SSTA forecasts lose skill with increasing lead time, a new methodology for predicting interannual rainfall is proposed. We allow our statistical prediction model to evolve with lead time while accounting for the loss of skill in SSTA forecasts instead of using one statistical model for all lead times. Results in this pilot study across two of the largest climate zones in Australia show that SSTA outputs from the decadal experiments provide enhanced skill in rainfall prediction over using the conventional model (based purely on lagged observed indices) up to a maximum of three years ahead. This methodology could be used more broadly for other regions around the world where rainfall variability is known to have strong links to ocean temperatures. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000490973700058 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ; CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE ; SEASONAL RAINFALL ; EL-NINO ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; VARIABILITY ; ENSO ; PRECIPITATION ; SUMMER |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185898 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ New S Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 2.Univ New S Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 3.Ctr Climate Phys, Inst Basic Sci, Busan, South Korea; 4.Univ New S Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 5.Indian Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Choudhury, Dipayan,Mehrotra, Rajeshwar,Sharma, Ashish,et al. Effectiveness of CMIP5 Decadal Experiments for Interannual Rainfall Prediction Over Australia[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(8):7400-7418. |
APA | Choudhury, Dipayan,Mehrotra, Rajeshwar,Sharma, Ashish,Sen Gupta, Alexander,&Sivakumar, Bellie.(2019).Effectiveness of CMIP5 Decadal Experiments for Interannual Rainfall Prediction Over Australia.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(8),7400-7418. |
MLA | Choudhury, Dipayan,et al."Effectiveness of CMIP5 Decadal Experiments for Interannual Rainfall Prediction Over Australia".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.8(2019):7400-7418. |
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