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DOI | 10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0 |
Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era | |
Neukom, Raphael1,2; Barboza, Luis A.3; Erb, Michael P.4; Shi, Feng5,6; Emile-Geay, Julien7; Evans, Michael N.8,9; Franke, Jorg1,2; Kaufman, Darrell S.4; Lucke, Lucie10; Rehfeld, Kira11,12; Schurer, Andrew10; Zhu, Feng7; Bronnimann, Stefan1,2; Hakim, Gregory J.13; Henley, Benjamin J.14,15,16; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier17,18,19; McKay, Nicholas4; Valler, Veronika1,2; von Gunten, Lucien20 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE GEOSCIENCE
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ISSN | 1752-0894 |
EISSN | 1752-0908 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 12期号:8页码:643-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; Costa Rica; USA; Peoples R China; Scotland; England; Germany; Australia; Sweden |
英文摘要 | Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300-1800 CE) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477864200015 |
WOS关键词 | NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE ; LAST MILLENNIUM ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; PART I ; FIELD RECONSTRUCTION ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; VOLCANIC-ERUPTIONS ; SYSTEM MODELS ; PATTERNS ; RESOLUTION |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185818 |
专题 | 地球科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland; 2.Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Bern, Switzerland; 3.Univ Costa Rica, Escuela Matemat CIMPA, San Jose, Costa Rica; 4.No Arizona Univ, Sch Earth & Sustainabil, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA; 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Cenozo Geol & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China; 6.CAS Ctr Excellence Life & Paleoenvironm, Beijing, Peoples R China; 7.Univ Southern Calif, Dept Earth Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA; 8.Univ Maryland, Dept Geol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 9.Univ Maryland, ESSIC, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 10.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; 11.British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, England; 12.Heidelberg Univ, Inst Environm Phys, Heidelberg, Germany; 13.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 14.Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 15.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic, Australia; 16.Univ Melbourne, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 17.Stockholm Univ, Dept Hist, Stockholm, Sweden; 18.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden; 19.Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge, England; 20.PAGES Int Project Off, Bern, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Neukom, Raphael,Barboza, Luis A.,Erb, Michael P.,et al. Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era[J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE,2019,12(8):643-+. |
APA | Neukom, Raphael.,Barboza, Luis A..,Erb, Michael P..,Shi, Feng.,Emile-Geay, Julien.,...&von Gunten, Lucien.(2019).Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era.NATURE GEOSCIENCE,12(8),643-+. |
MLA | Neukom, Raphael,et al."Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era".NATURE GEOSCIENCE 12.8(2019):643-+. |
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