Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-019-0527-4 |
Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity | |
Nijsse, Femke J. M. M.1; Cox, Peter M.1; Huntingford, Chris2; Williamson, Mark S.1 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 9期号:8页码:598-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Climate-related risks are dependent not only on the warming trend from GHGs, but also on the variability about the trend. However, assessment of the impacts of climate change tends to focus on the ultimate level of global warming(1), only occasionally on the rate of global warming, and rarely on variability about the trend. Here we show that models that are more sensitive to GHGs emissions (that is, higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)) also have higher temperature variability on timescales of several years to several decades(2). Counterintuitively, high-sensitivity climates, as well as having a higher chance of rapid decadal warming, are also more likely to have had historical 'hiatus' periods than lower-sensitivity climates. Cooling or hiatus decades over the historical period, which have been relatively uncommon, are more than twice as likely in a high-ECS world (ECS = 4.5 K) compared with a low-ECS world (ECS = 1.5 K). As ECS also affects the background warming rate under future scenarios with unmitigated anthropogenic forcing, the probability of a hyper-warming decade-over ten times the mean rate of global warming for the twentieth century-is even more sensitive to ECS. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477738300014 |
WOS关键词 | TELL US ; CONSTRAINTS ; FEEDBACKS ; MODELS ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185795 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England; 2.Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nijsse, Femke J. M. M.,Cox, Peter M.,Huntingford, Chris,et al. Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019,9(8):598-+. |
APA | Nijsse, Femke J. M. M.,Cox, Peter M.,Huntingford, Chris,&Williamson, Mark S..(2019).Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,9(8),598-+. |
MLA | Nijsse, Femke J. M. M.,et al."Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 9.8(2019):598-+. |
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