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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0034.1 |
Changing Seasonal Predictability of Arctic Summer Sea Ice Area in a Warming Climate | |
Holland, Marika M.1; Landrum, Laura1; Bailey, David1; Vavrus, Steve2 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:16页码:4963-4979 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We use a large ensemble set of simulations and initialized model forecasts to assess changes in the initial-value seasonal predictability of summer Arctic sea ice area from the late-twentieth to the mid-twenty-first century. Ice thickness is an important seasonal predictor of September ice area because early summer thickness anomalies affect how much melt out occurs. We find that the role of this predictor changes in a warming climate, leading to decadal changes in September ice area predictability. In January-initialized prediction experiments, initialization errors grow over time leading to forecast errors in ice thickness at the beginning of the melt season. The magnitude of this ice thickness forecast error growth for regions important to summer melt out decreases in a warming climate, contributing to enhanced predictability. On the other hand, the influence of early summer thickness anomalies on summer melt out and resulting September ice area increases as the climate warms. Given this, for the same magnitude ice thickness forecast error in early summer, a larger September ice area anomaly results in the warming climate, contributing to reduced predictability. The net result of these competing factors is that a sweet spot for predictability exists when the ice thickness forecast error growth is modest and the influence of these errors on melt out is modest. This occurs at about 2010 in our simulations. The predictability of summer ice area is lower for earlier decades, because of higher ice thickness forecast error growth, and for later decades because of a stronger influence of ice thickness forecast errors on summer melt out. |
英文关键词 | Arctic Climate change Seasonal forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000475909600001 |
WOS关键词 | THICKNESS INITIALIZATION ; PREDICTION ; FORECAST ; VARIABILITY ; PIOMAS ; EXTENT ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185722 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.Univ Wisconsin, Nelson Inst Ctr Climat Res, Madison, WI USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Holland, Marika M.,Landrum, Laura,Bailey, David,et al. Changing Seasonal Predictability of Arctic Summer Sea Ice Area in a Warming Climate[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(16):4963-4979. |
APA | Holland, Marika M.,Landrum, Laura,Bailey, David,&Vavrus, Steve.(2019).Changing Seasonal Predictability of Arctic Summer Sea Ice Area in a Warming Climate.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(16),4963-4979. |
MLA | Holland, Marika M.,et al."Changing Seasonal Predictability of Arctic Summer Sea Ice Area in a Warming Climate".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.16(2019):4963-4979. |
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