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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0558.1 |
Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Irene (2011) in a Changing Climate | |
Jung, Chunyong; Lackmann, Gary M. | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:15页码:4847-4871 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing strong extratropical transition (ET) can produce adverse societal impacts in areas that rarely experience direct TC impacts. This, in conjunction with projected environmental changes in climatological ET regions, motivates the investigation of possible future changes in ET characteristics. We utilize a small ensemble of numerical model simulations to examine how warming affects the ET of Hurricane Irene. To assess the effects of climate change, we use the pseudo-global warming method in which thermodynamic changes, derived from an ensemble of 20 CMIP5 GCMs, are applied to analyzed initial and lateral boundary conditions of model simulations. We find increased storm intensity in the future simulations, both in reduced minimum sea level pressure and strengthened 10-m wind speed. Storm-centered composites indicate a strengthening of tropospheric potential vorticity near the center of Irene, consistent with enhanced latent heat release. The results also demonstrate that Irene's precipitation in the warmed simulations increases at a rate that exceeds Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, owing to enhanced moisture flux convergence and an additional contribution from increased surface evaporation. The duration of the transition process increased in the warmed simulations due to a weakened midtropospheric trough and reduced vertical wind shear and meridional SST gradient with a slower northward translation. These results suggest that transitioning storms may exhibit an increased ability to extend TC-like conditions poleward, and motivates additional research. |
英文关键词 | Hurricanes Extratropical cyclones Tropical cyclones Anthropogenic effects Climate change Numerical analysis modeling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000475369300002 |
WOS关键词 | WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ; LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES ; PART I ; POTENTIAL-VORTICITY ; PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION ; NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS ; LIFE-CYCLE ; MODEL ; INTENSITY ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185718 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | North Carolina State Univ, Dept Marine Earth & Atmospher Sci, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jung, Chunyong,Lackmann, Gary M.. Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Irene (2011) in a Changing Climate[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(15):4847-4871. |
APA | Jung, Chunyong,&Lackmann, Gary M..(2019).Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Irene (2011) in a Changing Climate.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(15),4847-4871. |
MLA | Jung, Chunyong,et al."Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Irene (2011) in a Changing Climate".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.15(2019):4847-4871. |
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