资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Many countries and regions are enacting plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) supportive policies in an ad-hoc manner, typically without clear goals or evaluation metrics. In this paper, we develop an evaluation framework based on the likely ability of a package of these policies to achieve one goal: PEVs capturing at least 40% of new passenger vehicle market share by 2040 (in line with deep GHG abatement targets). We develop simple methods to translate different policy types including incentives, infrastructure deployment and supply mandates into 2040 market share "points" based on policy stringency and duration. To aid in the communication of this analysis, we assign an overall letter grade (A, B, C, D or F) to a given region based on the suite of policies in place. We apply this framework to Canada's 10 provinces based on policies in place in November 2016. Seven provinces have enacted little or no effective policies and are assigned "F" and "D" grades. Three provinces demonstrate greater policy effort (British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec), though only one is on track to achieve a "B-" grade (Quebec). Our framework provides an accessible tool for policymakers to assess the effectiveness of different PEV-supportive policy packages, and our application identifies uncertainties that can be better understood through further research.