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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ef |
Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia | |
Henley, Benjamin J.1,2,3; Peel, Murray C.4; Nathan, Rory4; King, Andrew D.1,2; Ukkola, Anna M.2,5; Karoly, David J.1,6; Tan, Kim S.7 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine hydrological and climate model simulations to evaluate risks to the water supply under projected shifts in the climate at the Paris Agreement warming levels. Modelling the primary surface water sources for Melbourne, Australia, we project that the risk of severe water supply shortage to the climate-dependent portion of the system increases substantially as global warming increases from 1.5 degrees C to 2.0 degrees C. Risks are further exacerbated by increases in water demand but substantially ameliorated by supply augmentation from desalination. We demonstrate that reductions in precipitation, rising temperature and growth in water demand combine to substantially amplify the risk of severe water supply shortage under near-term global warming in the absence of a climate-independent supply. This risk amplification is not as apparent in assessments based on meteorological drought alone. With the diminishing opportunity of meeting the 1.5 degrees C Paris target, our study highlights the need to accelerate greenhouse gas mitigation efforts to reduce risks to climate dependent water supply systems. |
英文关键词 | Paris Agreement water supply drought drought risk desalination 1.5 degrees C 2.0 degrees C |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000478630500001 |
WOS关键词 | DROUGHT RISK ; PROJECTIONS ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; PRECIPITATION ; RESOURCES ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185626 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 2.ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 3.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic, Australia; 4.Univ Melbourne, Infrastruct Engn, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 5.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 6.CSIRO, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 7.Melbourne Water, Melbourne, Vic, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Henley, Benjamin J.,Peel, Murray C.,Nathan, Rory,et al. Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(8). |
APA | Henley, Benjamin J..,Peel, Murray C..,Nathan, Rory.,King, Andrew D..,Ukkola, Anna M..,...&Tan, Kim S..(2019).Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(8). |
MLA | Henley, Benjamin J.,et al."Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.8(2019). |
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