Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab2dd7 |
Detection of fossil fuel emission trends in the presence of natural carbon cycle variability | |
Yin, Yi1,2; Bowman, Kevin1,3; Bloom, A. Anthony1; Worden, John1 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Atmospheric CO2 observations have the potential to monitor regional fossil fuel emission (FFCO2) changes to support carbon mitigation efforts such as the Paris Accord, but they must contend with the confounding impacts of the natural carbon cycle. Here, we quantify trend detection time and magnitude in gridded total CO2 fluxes-the sum of FFCO2 and natural carbon fluxes-under an idealized assumption that monthly total CO2 fluxes can be perfectly resolved at a 2 degrees x 2 degrees resolution. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) 'business-as-usual' emission scenarios to represent FFCO2 and simulated net biome exchange (NBE) to represent natural carbon fluxes, we find that trend detection time for the total CO2 fluxes at such a resolution has a median of 10 years across the globe, with significant spatial variability depending on FFCO2 magnitude and NBE variability. Differences between trends in the total CO2 fluxes and the underlying FFCO2 component highlight the role of natural carbon cycle variability in modulating regional detection of FFCO2 emission trends using CO2 observations alone, particularly in the tropics and subtropics where mega-cities with large populations are developing rapidly. Using CO2 estimates alone at such a spatiotemporal resolution can only quantify fossil fuel trends in a few places-mostly limited to arid regions. For instance, in the Middle East, FFCO2 can explain more than 75% of the total CO2 trends in similar to 70% of the grids, but only similar to 20% of grids in China can meet such criteria. Only a third of the 25 megacities we analyze here show total CO2 trends that are primarily explained (>75%) by FFCO2. Our analysis provides a theoretical baseline at a global scale for the design of regional FFCO2 monitoring networks and underscores the importance of estimating biospheric interannual variability to improve the accuracy of FFCO2 trend monitoring. We envision that this can be achieved with a fully integrated carbon cycle assimilation system with explicit constraints on FFCO2 and NBE, respectively. |
英文关键词 | fossil fuel emissions trend detection CO2 monitor carbon cycle |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000481867200007 |
WOS关键词 | GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; URBAN CO2 EMISSIONS ; ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION ; VERIFICATION ; DIOXIDE ; GEOCARB ; MISSION ; CMIP5 ; CH4 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185593 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA; 2.CALTECH, Div Geol & Planetary Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA; 3.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Joint Inst Reg Earth Syst Sci & Engn, Los Angeles, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yin, Yi,Bowman, Kevin,Bloom, A. Anthony,et al. Detection of fossil fuel emission trends in the presence of natural carbon cycle variability[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(8). |
APA | Yin, Yi,Bowman, Kevin,Bloom, A. Anthony,&Worden, John.(2019).Detection of fossil fuel emission trends in the presence of natural carbon cycle variability.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(8). |
MLA | Yin, Yi,et al."Detection of fossil fuel emission trends in the presence of natural carbon cycle variability".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.8(2019). |
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