Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02500-y |
Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment | |
Ho, Emily1; Budescu, David V.1; Bosetti, Valentina2; van Vuuren, Detlef P.3; Keller, Klaus4 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 155期号:4页码:545-561 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Italy; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Climate researchers use carbon dioxide emission scenarios to explore alternative climate futures and potential impacts, as well as implications of mitigation and adaptation policies. Often, these scenarios are published without formal probabilistic interpretations, given the deep uncertainty related to future development. However, users often seek such information, a likely range or relative probabilities. Without further specifications, users sometimes pick a small subset of emission scenarios and/or assume that all scenarios are equally likely. Here, we present probabilistic judgments of experts assessing the distribution of 2100 emissions under a business-as-usual and a policy scenario. We obtain the judgments through a method that relies only on pairwise comparisons of various ranges of emissions. There is wide variability between individual experts, but they clearly do not assign equal probabilities for the total range of future emissions. We contrast these judgments with the emission projection ranges derived from the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and a recent multi-model comparison producing probabilistic emission scenarios. Differences on long-term emission probabilities between expert estimates and model-based calculations may result from various factors including model restrictions, a coverage of a wider set of factors by experts, but also group think and inability to appreciate long-term processes. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000486260000006 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; SEA-LEVEL RISE ; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS ; SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS ; DECISION-MAKING ; UNCERTAINTY ; JUDGMENT ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; PRINCIPLE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185484 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Fordham Univ, Bronx, NY 10458 USA; 2.Bocconi Univ, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm, Milan, Italy; 3.Univ Utrecht, PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Utrecht, Netherlands; 4.Penn State Univ, State Coll, PA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ho, Emily,Budescu, David V.,Bosetti, Valentina,et al. Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,155(4):545-561. |
APA | Ho, Emily,Budescu, David V.,Bosetti, Valentina,van Vuuren, Detlef P.,&Keller, Klaus.(2019).Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment.CLIMATIC CHANGE,155(4),545-561. |
MLA | Ho, Emily,et al."Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment".CLIMATIC CHANGE 155.4(2019):545-561. |
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