Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02495-6 |
The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia | |
Aguayo, Rodrigo1; Leon-Munoz, Jorge2,3; Vargas-Baecheler, Jose1; Montecinos, Aldo4,5; Garreaud, Rene6,7; Urbina, Mauricio8,9; Soto, Doris3; Luis Iriarte, Jose10,11 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 155期号:3页码:417-435 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Chile |
英文摘要 | Oceanographic conditions in coastal Chilean northern Patagonia (41-46 degrees S) are strongly influenced by freshwater inputs. Precipitation and streamflow records have shown a marked decrease in this area during the last decades. Given this hydro-climatic scenario, we evaluated the hydrological sensitivity driven by climate change in the Puelo River (average annual streamflow = 640 m(3) s(-1)), one of the most important sources of freshwater in the fjords and inland seas of Chile's Northern Patagonia. A lumped hydrological model was developed to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios in the near future (2030-2060) using the delta change method based on 25 General Circulation Models. The model was fed by local hydro-meteorological data and remote sensors, simulating well the magnitude and seasonality of Puelo River streamflow. Considering the Refined Index of Agreement (RIA), the model achieved a high performance in the calibration (RIA = 0.79) and validation stages (RIA = 0.78). Under the RCP 8.5 scenario (multi-model mean), the projections suggest that the annual input of freshwater from the Puelo River to the Reloncavi Fjord would decrease by - 10% (1.6 km(3) less freshwater); these decreases would mainly take place in summer ( - 20%) and autumn ( - 15%). The recurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events is also projected to increase in the future, with the probability of occurrence of droughts, such as the recent 2016 event with the lowest freshwater input in the last 70 years, doubling with respect to the historical records. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000482447300008 |
WOS关键词 | STREAMFLOW ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACTS ; RIVER ; SALINITY ; RUNOFF ; RECORD ; OCEAN ; FJORD ; PRECIPITATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185477 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Concepcion, Fac Ingn, Dept Ingn Civil, Concepcion, Chile; 2.Univ Catolica Santisima Concepcion, Fac Ciencias, Dept Quim Ambiental, Concepcion, Chile; 3.Ctr Interdisciplinario Invest Acuicola INCAR, Concepcion, Chile; 4.Univ Concepcion, Fac Ciencias Fis & Matemat, Dept Geofis, Concepcion, Chile; 5.Ctr Recursos Hidr Agr & Mineria CRHIAM, Concepcion, Chile; 6.Univ Chile, Fac Ciencias Fis & Matemat, Dept Geofis, Santiago, Chile; 7.Ctr Ciencia Clima & Resiliencia CR2, Santiago, Chile; 8.Univ Concepcion, Fac Ciencias Nat & Oceanog, Dept Zool, Concepcion, Chile; 9.Univ Concepcion, IMO, Concepcion, Chile; 10.Univ Austral Chile, Inst Acuicultura, Ctr Invest Dinam Ecosistemas Marinos Altas Latitu, Puerto Montt, Chile; 11.Univ Concepcion, Ctr Invest Oceanog COPAS Sur Austral, Concepcion, Chile |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Aguayo, Rodrigo,Leon-Munoz, Jorge,Vargas-Baecheler, Jose,et al. The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,155(3):417-435. |
APA | Aguayo, Rodrigo.,Leon-Munoz, Jorge.,Vargas-Baecheler, Jose.,Montecinos, Aldo.,Garreaud, Rene.,...&Luis Iriarte, Jose.(2019).The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia.CLIMATIC CHANGE,155(3),417-435. |
MLA | Aguayo, Rodrigo,et al."The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia".CLIMATIC CHANGE 155.3(2019):417-435. |
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