Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.013 |
An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks | |
Beccue, Phillip C.1; Huntington, Hillard G.2; Leiby, Paul N.3; Vincent, Kenneth R.4 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY
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ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115页码:456-469 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The probability of the size and duration of another oil disruption is critical to estimating the value of any policies for reducing the economic damages from a sudden oil supply disruption. The Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University developed a risk assessment framework and evaluated the likelihood of one or more foreign oil disruptions over the next ten years. Leading geopolitical, military and oil-market experts provided their expertise on the probability of different events occurring, and their corresponding link to major disruptions in key oil market regions. The study evaluated 5 primary regions of production: Saudi Arabia, Other Persian Gulf, Africa, Latin America, and Russian / Caspian States. Disruptions are defined as being net of offsets (e.g., OPEC spare capacity), with the notable exception that the SPR is not included as a source of offsets. At least once during the 10-year time frame (2016-2025), there exists approximately an 80% probability of a net (of offsets) disruption of 2 MMBD (million barrels per day) or more lasting at least 1 month. |
英文关键词 | Oil disruption Risk analysis |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428099800045 |
WOS关键词 | SECURITY |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18544 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.White Deer Partners, 2228 Knollcrest Pl, Westlake Village, CA 91361 USA; 2.Stanford Univ, Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 3.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA; 4.US DOE, 1000 Independence Ave, Washington, DC 20585 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Beccue, Phillip C.,Huntington, Hillard G.,Leiby, Paul N.,et al. An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,115:456-469. |
APA | Beccue, Phillip C.,Huntington, Hillard G.,Leiby, Paul N.,&Vincent, Kenneth R..(2018).An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks.ENERGY POLICY,115,456-469. |
MLA | Beccue, Phillip C.,et al."An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks".ENERGY POLICY 115(2018):456-469. |
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