GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.013
An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks
Beccue, Phillip C.1; Huntington, Hillard G.2; Leiby, Paul N.3; Vincent, Kenneth R.4
2018-04-01
发表期刊ENERGY POLICY
ISSN0301-4215
EISSN1873-6777
出版年2018
卷号115页码:456-469
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The probability of the size and duration of another oil disruption is critical to estimating the value of any policies for reducing the economic damages from a sudden oil supply disruption. The Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University developed a risk assessment framework and evaluated the likelihood of one or more foreign oil disruptions over the next ten years. Leading geopolitical, military and oil-market experts provided their expertise on the probability of different events occurring, and their corresponding link to major disruptions in key oil market regions. The study evaluated 5 primary regions of production: Saudi Arabia, Other Persian Gulf, Africa, Latin America, and Russian / Caspian States. Disruptions are defined as being net of offsets (e.g., OPEC spare capacity), with the notable exception that the SPR is not included as a source of offsets. At least once during the 10-year time frame (2016-2025), there exists approximately an 80% probability of a net (of offsets) disruption of 2 MMBD (million barrels per day) or more lasting at least 1 month.


英文关键词Oil disruption Risk analysis
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000428099800045
WOS关键词SECURITY
WOS类目Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18544
专题气候变化
作者单位1.White Deer Partners, 2228 Knollcrest Pl, Westlake Village, CA 91361 USA;
2.Stanford Univ, Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford, CA 94305 USA;
3.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA;
4.US DOE, 1000 Independence Ave, Washington, DC 20585 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Beccue, Phillip C.,Huntington, Hillard G.,Leiby, Paul N.,et al. An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,115:456-469.
APA Beccue, Phillip C.,Huntington, Hillard G.,Leiby, Paul N.,&Vincent, Kenneth R..(2018).An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks.ENERGY POLICY,115,456-469.
MLA Beccue, Phillip C.,et al."An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks".ENERGY POLICY 115(2018):456-469.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Beccue, Phillip C.]的文章
[Huntington, Hillard G.]的文章
[Leiby, Paul N.]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Beccue, Phillip C.]的文章
[Huntington, Hillard G.]的文章
[Leiby, Paul N.]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Beccue, Phillip C.]的文章
[Huntington, Hillard G.]的文章
[Leiby, Paul N.]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。