Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04719-y |
Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models | |
Lim, Yuna1; Son, Seok-Woo1; Marshall, Andrew G.2; Hendon, Harry H.3; Seo, Kyong-Hwan4 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:1681-1695 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; Australia |
英文摘要 | Recent studies have shown that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is significantly modulated by the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). In general, boreal winter MJO becomes more active during the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) than during the westerly phase (WQBO). Based on this finding, here we examine the possible impacts of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the operational models that participated in the WCRP/WWRP subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. All models show a higher MJO prediction skill during EQBO winters than during WQBO winters. For the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.5, the MJO prediction skill during EQBO winters is enhanced byup to 10 days. This enhancement is insensitive to the initial MJO amplitude, indicating thatthe improved MJO prediction skill is not simply the result of astronger MJO. Instead, a longer persistence of theMJO during EQBO winters likely induces a higher prediction skill by having a higher prediction limit. |
英文关键词 | Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) QBO-MJO link Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000475558800026 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; TEMPERATURE ; MODULATION ; MECHANISMS ; FORECASTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185420 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, 1 Gwanak Ro, Seoul 08826, South Korea; 2.Bur Meteorol, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 3.Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 4.Pusan Natl Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Busan, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lim, Yuna,Son, Seok-Woo,Marshall, Andrew G.,et al. Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:1681-1695. |
APA | Lim, Yuna,Son, Seok-Woo,Marshall, Andrew G.,Hendon, Harry H.,&Seo, Kyong-Hwan.(2019).Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,1681-1695. |
MLA | Lim, Yuna,et al."Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):1681-1695. |
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