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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04661-z |
Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea | |
Darmaraki, Sofia1; Somot, Samuel1; Sevault, Florence1; Nabat, Pierre1; Narvaez, William David Cabos2; Cavicchia, Leone3; Djurdjevic, Vladimir4; Li, Laurent5; Sannino, Gianmaria6; Sein, Dmitry V.7,8 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:1371-1392 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; Spain; Italy; Serbia; Germany; Russia |
英文摘要 | Extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), have been observed to perturb significantly marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world. Here, we propose a detection method for long-lasting and large-scale summer MHWs, using a local, climatological 99th percentile threshold, based on present-climate (1976-2005) daily SST. To assess their future evolution in the Mediterranean Sea we use, for the first time, a dedicated ensemble of fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models from the Med-CORDEX initiative and a multi-scenario approach. The models appear to simulate well MHW properties during historical period, despite biases in mean and extreme SST. In response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing, the events become stronger and more intense under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. By 2100 and under RCP8.5, simulations project at least one long-lasting MHW every year, up to three months longer, about 4 times more intense and 42 times more severe than present-day events. They are expected to occur from June-October and to affect at peak the entire basin. Their evolution is found to occur mainly due to an increase in the mean SST, but increased daily SST variability also plays a noticeable role. Until the mid-21st century, MHW characteristics rise independently of the choice of the emission scenario, the influence of which becomes more evident by the end of the period. Further analysis reveals different climate change responses in certain configurations, more likely linked to their driving global climate model rather than to the individual model biases. |
英文关键词 | Marine Heatwaves Mediterranean Sea Coupled regional climate models Future scenario Extreme ocean temperatures Med-CORDEX Climate change Climate simulations |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000475558800009 |
WOS关键词 | 2003 EUROPEAN HEATWAVE ; MASS MORTALITY EVENT ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; BENTHIC COMMUNITY ; NORTH PACIFIC ; OCEAN ; RESOLUTION ; AUSTRALIA ; PATTERNS ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185403 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Toulouse, Meteo France, CNRS, CNRM,UMR 3589, 42 Ave Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse, France; 2.Univ Alcala De Henares, UAH, Dept Phys & Math, Madrid, Spain; 3.Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climatici, CMCC, Lecce, Italy; 4.Univ Belgrade, Fac Phys, Studentski Trg 12, Belgrade, Serbia; 5.Univ Pierre & Marie Curie Paris 6, CNRS, LMD, Paris, France; 6.ENEA, Via Anguillarese 301, I-00123 Rome, Italy; 7.Alfred Wegener Inst Polar & Marine Res AWI, D-27568 Bremerhaven, Germany; 8.Russian Acad Sci, Shirshov Inst Oceanol, 36 Nahimovskiy Prospect, Moscow 117997, Russia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Darmaraki, Sofia,Somot, Samuel,Sevault, Florence,et al. Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:1371-1392. |
APA | Darmaraki, Sofia.,Somot, Samuel.,Sevault, Florence.,Nabat, Pierre.,Narvaez, William David Cabos.,...&Sein, Dmitry V..(2019).Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,1371-1392. |
MLA | Darmaraki, Sofia,et al."Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):1371-1392. |
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