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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04658-8 |
Improved decadal prediction of Northern-Hemisphere summer land temperature | |
Wu, Bo1,2; Zhou, Tianjun1,3; Li, Chao4; Mueller, Wolfgang A.4,5; Lin, Jianshe1 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:1357-1369 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Germany |
英文摘要 | The prediction of multiyear to decadal climate variability is important for stakeholders and decision-makers who are engaged in near-term planning activities. The decadal climate prediction experiments (DPEs) by predicting near-term climate with initialized global climate models (GCMs) provide robust skill at predicting sea surface temperature variability in some ocean regions as the North Atlantic. However, the state-of-the-art DPEs, which reproduce the observed warming trend associated with forced climate change, fail at predicting land surface air temperature (SAT) interdecadal variability. Here, we develop an effective statistical-dynamical model to predict spatial and temporal evolutions in Northern-Hemisphere (NH) summer land SAT. We identify two dominant interdecadal variability modes of the NH summer land SAT, whose evolutions are synchronized with forced climate change and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), respectively. Based on statistical relationships with physical interpretations, time series of the forced responses and the AMV skillfully predicted by GCMs, the land SAT over the past one hundred years is predicted retrospectively with significantly improved skill compared to that predicted by the DPEs. Our results indicate that the decadal variability of the NH land SAT is predictable, with predictability rooted in atmospheric interdecadal circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) forced by the AMV. More skillful NH climate prediction by DPEs, which would be more practical for stakeholders and decision-makers, can be achieved by improving interdecadal CGT simulations in GCMs. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000475558800008 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE ; CIRCUMGLOBAL TELECONNECTION ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; ATLANTIC-OCEAN ; INITIALIZATION ; PATTERN |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185402 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, China Meteorol Adm, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany; 5.Deutsch Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wu, Bo,Zhou, Tianjun,Li, Chao,et al. Improved decadal prediction of Northern-Hemisphere summer land temperature[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:1357-1369. |
APA | Wu, Bo,Zhou, Tianjun,Li, Chao,Mueller, Wolfgang A.,&Lin, Jianshe.(2019).Improved decadal prediction of Northern-Hemisphere summer land temperature.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,1357-1369. |
MLA | Wu, Bo,et al."Improved decadal prediction of Northern-Hemisphere summer land temperature".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):1357-1369. |
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