Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.029 |
Ensemble flood forecasting based on a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with data assimilation | |
Tian, Jiyang; Liu, Jia; Yan, Denghua; Ding, Liuqian; Li, Chuanzhe | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 224页码:127-137 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | In order to prolong the lead time of the flood forecasts, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are more and more widely used to provide high-resolution rainfall forecasts as the feed of the rainfall-runoff model for flood forecasts. In this study, a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system is constructed by integrating the weather research forecasting (WRF) model and the Hebei rainfall-runoff model together with the WRF three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation module. Four storm events from two mountainous catchments in Jin-Jing-Ji Region of Northern China are selected to evaluate the performance of the coupled system for real-time flood forecasting. Five different combinations of physical parameterizations are adopted with the WRF model to provide a forecast rainfall ensemble. Conventional observations and radar reflectivity data are assimilated by the 3DVar data assimilation module to update the initial and lateral boundary conditions of the WRF model in order to provide more reliable rainfall forecasts. The results show that the atmospheric-hydrological modeling system can provide satisfactory flood forecasts, especially for the storm events with relatively even rainfall distribution in the spatial dimension. Appropriate data assimilation show positive effect on improving the accumulation process of the rainfall which therefore helps effectively increase the forecast accuracy of the coupled modeling system. |
英文关键词 | Numerical weather prediction Data assimilation Rainfall-runoff model Atmospheric-hydrological modeling system Ensemble flood forecasting |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000466256500010 |
WOS关键词 | NUMERICAL RAINFALL SIMULATION ; RADAR REFLECTIVITY ; WRF MODEL ; CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION ; PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; RADIAL-VELOCITY ; KALMAN FILTER ; IMPACT ; TIME |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185382 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, 1 Fuxing Rd, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tian, Jiyang,Liu, Jia,Yan, Denghua,et al. Ensemble flood forecasting based on a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with data assimilation[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2019,224:127-137. |
APA | Tian, Jiyang,Liu, Jia,Yan, Denghua,Ding, Liuqian,&Li, Chuanzhe.(2019).Ensemble flood forecasting based on a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with data assimilation.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,224,127-137. |
MLA | Tian, Jiyang,et al."Ensemble flood forecasting based on a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with data assimilation".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 224(2019):127-137. |
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