Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1306/12181818038 |
Quantification of thermal conductivity uncertainty for basin modeling | |
Elison, Patrick1,2; Niederau, Jan1,3; Vogt, Christian4; Clauser, Christoph1 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | AAPG BULLETIN
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ISSN | 0149-1423 |
EISSN | 1558-9153 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 103期号:8页码:1787-1809 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Thermal conductivity is a major influencing factor on subsurface conductive heat transport and resulting temperature distribution, which in turn is a key parameter in basin modeling. Basin modeling studies commonly use representative literature values of thermal conductivity despite their impact on modeling results. We introduce a workflow for quantifying the effect of uncertain thermal conductivity on subsurface temperature distribution and thus on basin modeling results and test this workflow on a two-dimensional generic model from the Nordkapp Basin; a prior ensemble of possible models is conditioned according to Bayes' theorem to incorporate prior knowledge of temperature data. This conditional probability yields a posterior ensemble of temperature fields with a significantly reduced standard deviation. To verify our approach, we use five characteristic scenarios from the posterior ensemble for transient petroleum systems modeling. How considering uncertain thermal conductivity affects variance in hydrocarbon generation is assessed by modeling corresponding vitrinite reflectances (R-o). Temperature uncertainty increases with depth. It also increases with increasing offset from the salt diapirs, which can be associated with a large lateral heat-flow component in the complex tectonic environment of the Nordkapp Basin. The introduced workflow can reduce temperature uncertainty significantly, especially in regions with high prior uncertainty. The R-o is very sensitive to changes in thermal conductivity because the onset depth of the gas window in the Nordkapp Basin may vary by up to 800 m (2600 ft) within the 95% confidence interval. This demonstrates the importance of quantification of the uncertainty in thermal conductivity on thermal basin modeling. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000481614200002 |
WOS关键词 | NORDKAPP BASIN ; PETROLEUM GENERATION ; HEAT-FLOW ; EVOLUTION ; OIL |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185369 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Rhein Westfal TH Aachen, EON Energy Res Ctr, Inst Appl Geophys & Geothermal Energy, Aachen, Germany; 2.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Geophys, Zurich, Switzerland; 3.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Earth Sci, Geothermal Energy & Geofluids Grp, Sonneggstr 5, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland; 4.Schlumberger GmbH, Aachen, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Elison, Patrick,Niederau, Jan,Vogt, Christian,et al. Quantification of thermal conductivity uncertainty for basin modeling[J]. AAPG BULLETIN,2019,103(8):1787-1809. |
APA | Elison, Patrick,Niederau, Jan,Vogt, Christian,&Clauser, Christoph.(2019).Quantification of thermal conductivity uncertainty for basin modeling.AAPG BULLETIN,103(8),1787-1809. |
MLA | Elison, Patrick,et al."Quantification of thermal conductivity uncertainty for basin modeling".AAPG BULLETIN 103.8(2019):1787-1809. |
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