Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD030173 |
Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet During Austral Spring and Early Summer | |
Byrne, Nicholas J.1,2; Shepherd, Theodore G.1; Polichtchouk, Inna2 | |
2019-07-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:13页码:6841-6855 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Several recent studies have suggested that the stratosphere can be a source of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of Southern Hemisphere circulation during the austral spring and early summer seasons, through its influence on the zonal-mean eddy-driven jet. We exploit the large sample size afforded by the hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System to address a number of unanswered questions. It is shown that the picture of coherent seasonal variability of the coupled stratosphere-troposphere system apparent from the reanalysis record during the spring/early summer period is robust to sampling uncertainty and that there is evidence of nonlinearity in the case of the most extreme variations. The effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on the eddy-driven jet during this time of year is found to occur via the stratosphere, with no evidence of a direct tropospheric pathway. A simple two-state statistical model of the stratospheric vortex is introduced to estimate the subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability associated with shifts of the seasonal cycle in the Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmosphere. This simple model, along with a more general model, is subsequently used to interpret skill scores associated with hindcasts made using the full seasonal forecast system. Together, the results provide evidence of tropospheric predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales during this time of year from at least as early as 1 August and show no evidence of a signal-to-noise paradox between the hindcasts and the reanalysis. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477580200012 |
WOS关键词 | INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; ANNULAR MODE ; CIRCULATION ; STRATOSPHERE ; SKILL ; PREDICTION ; BREAKDOWN |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185122 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 2.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Byrne, Nicholas J.,Shepherd, Theodore G.,Polichtchouk, Inna. Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet During Austral Spring and Early Summer[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(13):6841-6855. |
APA | Byrne, Nicholas J.,Shepherd, Theodore G.,&Polichtchouk, Inna.(2019).Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet During Austral Spring and Early Summer.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(13),6841-6855. |
MLA | Byrne, Nicholas J.,et al."Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet During Austral Spring and Early Summer".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.13(2019):6841-6855. |
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