Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019JD030283 |
Factors Affecting the Variability of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) of Tropical Cyclones Over the North Atlantic | |
Xu, Jing1; Wang, Yuqing1,2,3; Yang, Chi4 | |
2019-07-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:13页码:6654-6668 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Contributions of atmospheric factors to the variability of the calculated theoretical maximum potential intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic are explored using the 6-hourly atmospheric reanalysis and TC best track data from 1980 to 2015. The results show that for a given sea surface temperature (SST), the calculated theoretical MPI between the medians of top 10% and bottom 10% samples can vary by as large as 10-15 m/s, which accounts for 20-25% of the median of the MPI. It is shown that the drier (moister) and colder (warmer) environment favors higher (lower) MPI, and the TC-MPI is more sensitive to atmospheric temperature at lower SSTs but more sensitive to atmospheric humidity at higher SSTs. Results from sensitivity experiments show that the tropospheric temperature and humidity profiles and the outflow layer temperature are all responsible for the MPI variability, but their relative importance vary with SST. The atmospheric humidity accounts for 12-13 (7-11) m/s at SSTs over (below) 28 degrees C, the tropospheric temperature accounts for about 7-12 (5-6) m/s at SSTs below (above) 28 degrees C, and the outflow temperature accounts for 7-8 m/s almost independent of SST. These results strongly suggest that the modulation of MPI by synoptic variability needs to be considered when MPI is calculated and used as a predictor/parameter in operational TC intensity prediction schemes, especially for strong TCs. Some other implications of the results are also discussed. Plain Language Summary Contributions of atmospheric factors to the variability of the theoretical maximum potential intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic are explored using the 6-hourly atmospheric reanalysis and TC best track data from 1980 to 2015. The results show that for a given sea surface temperature (SST), the theoretical MPI between the medians of top 10% and bottom 10% samples can vary by as large as 10-15 m/s, which accounts for 20-25% of the median of the MPI. It is shown that the drier (moister) and colder (warmer) environment favors higher (lower) MPI, and the MPI is more sensitive to atmospheric temperature at lower SSTs but more sensitive to atmospheric humidity at higher SSTs. Results strongly suggest that the modulation of MPI by synoptic variability needs to be considered when MPI is calculated and used as a predictor in operational TC intensity prediction schemes, especially for strong TCs. |
英文关键词 | tropical cyclone maximum potential intensity (MPI) variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477580200001 |
WOS关键词 | ENVIRONMENTAL DYNAMICAL CONTROL ; PREDICTION SCHEME SHIPS ; AIR-SEA INTERACTION ; HURRICANE INTENSITY ; MOMENTUM EXCHANGE ; MODEL ; SENSITIVITY ; INCREASE ; CO2 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185111 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.China Meteorol Adm, Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weatner, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 3.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 4.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xu, Jing,Wang, Yuqing,Yang, Chi. Factors Affecting the Variability of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) of Tropical Cyclones Over the North Atlantic[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(13):6654-6668. |
APA | Xu, Jing,Wang, Yuqing,&Yang, Chi.(2019).Factors Affecting the Variability of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) of Tropical Cyclones Over the North Atlantic.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(13),6654-6668. |
MLA | Xu, Jing,et al."Factors Affecting the Variability of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) of Tropical Cyclones Over the North Atlantic".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.13(2019):6654-6668. |
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