Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR024177 |
What Is Controlling Our Control Rules? Opening the Black Box of Multireservoir Operating Policies Using Time-Varying Sensitivity Analysis | |
Quinn, J. D.1; Reed, P. M.2; Giuliani, M.3; Castelletti, A.3,4 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 55期号:7页码:5962-5984 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Italy; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Multireservoir systems are designed to serve multiple conflicting demands over varying time scales that may be out of phase with the system's hydroclimatic inputs. Adaptive, nonlinear reservoir control policies are often best suited to serve these needs. However, nonlinear operating policies are hard to interpret, so water managers tend to favor simple, static rules that may not effectively manage conflicts between the system's multisectoral demands. In this study, we introduce an analytical framework for opening the black box of optimized nonlinear operating policies, decomposing their time-varying information sensitivities to show how their adaptive and coordinated release prescriptions better manage hydrologic variability. Interestingly, these information sensitivities vary significantly across policies depending on how they negotiate tradeoffs between conflicting objectives. We illustrate this analysis in the Red River basin of Vietnam, where four major reservoirs serve to protect the capital of Hanoi from flooding while also providing the surrounding region with electric power and meeting multisectoral water demands for the agricultural and urban economies. Utilizing Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search, we are able to design policies that, using the same information as sequential if/then/else-based operating guidelines developed by the government, outperform these traditional rules with respect to every objective. Policy diagnostics using time-varying sensitivity analysis illustrate how the Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search operations better adapt and coordinate information use to reduce food-energy-water conflicts in the basin. These findings accentuate the benefits of transitioning to dynamic operating policies in order to manage evolving hydroclimatic variability and socioeconomic demands in multipurpose reservoir networks. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000481444700044 |
WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; RESERVOIR OPERATION ; HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION ; SYSTEMS-ANALYSIS ; MANAGEMENT ; OPTIMIZATION ; ALGORITHM ; FRAMEWORK ; FORECASTS ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184865 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Virginia, Dept Engn Syst & Environm, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA; 2.Cornell Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA; 3.Politecn Milan, Dept Elect Informat & Bioengn, Milan, Italy; 4.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Environm Engn, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Quinn, J. D.,Reed, P. M.,Giuliani, M.,et al. What Is Controlling Our Control Rules? Opening the Black Box of Multireservoir Operating Policies Using Time-Varying Sensitivity Analysis[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(7):5962-5984. |
APA | Quinn, J. D.,Reed, P. M.,Giuliani, M.,&Castelletti, A..(2019).What Is Controlling Our Control Rules? Opening the Black Box of Multireservoir Operating Policies Using Time-Varying Sensitivity Analysis.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(7),5962-5984. |
MLA | Quinn, J. D.,et al."What Is Controlling Our Control Rules? Opening the Black Box of Multireservoir Operating Policies Using Time-Varying Sensitivity Analysis".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.7(2019):5962-5984. |
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