Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.022 |
Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance | |
Malova, Aleksandra1; van der Ploeg, Frederick1,2 | |
2017-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 105 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Russia; England |
英文摘要 | Despite substantial oil and gas revenue Russia's fiscal stance is unsustainable. Under our benchmark assumptions the permanent-income rule requires a permanent tightening of the fiscal stance by 4.6%-points of GDP. Delaying it by a decade implies that the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by a further 0.9%-point. This benchmark optimal policy ensures that depletion of oil and gas wealth is matched by an equal increase in above-ground financial wealth. Its merits are highlighted by comparing it with the tougher alternative of the bird-in hand rule and with projecting the current fiscal stance. If oil and gas revenue rises by a half due to higher prices or more discoveries, the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by only 3.2%-points of GDP. However, if a large chunk of oil and gas has to be kept in the soil to meet international agreements to keep global warming below 2 degrees C, the permanent transfer drops to 2.0% of GDP and the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by 5.5%-points of GDP. |
英文关键词 | Managing oil and gas revenues Sustainable fiscal stance Permanent income rule Hartwick rule Bird-in-hand rule Stranded assets |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400532900004 |
WOS关键词 | DEVELOPING-ECONOMIES ; BOOMING SECTOR ; RESOURCE-RICH ; WINDFALL ; REVENUES ; THREAT |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18477 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.St Petersburg State Univ, 7-9 Univ Skaya Nab, St Petersburg 199034, Russia; 2.Univ Oxford, Dept Econ, OXCARRE, Oxford OX1 3UQ, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Malova, Aleksandra,van der Ploeg, Frederick. Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2017,105. |
APA | Malova, Aleksandra,&van der Ploeg, Frederick.(2017).Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance.ENERGY POLICY,105. |
MLA | Malova, Aleksandra,et al."Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance".ENERGY POLICY 105(2017). |
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