Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.055 |
Can Japan enhance its 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets? Assessment of economic and energy-related assumptions in Japan's NDC | |
Kuriyama, Akihisa1,2; Tamura, Kentaro1; Kuramochi, Takeshi3,4 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 130页码:328-340 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan; Germany; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the stringency of Japan's greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2030 (nationally determined contribution: NDC), focusing on the macroeconomic assumptions of Kaya indicators and others previously overlooked, e.g. GDP per working-age population. It also conducts a decomposition analysis in light of historic political and economic events. We find that the real GDP growth assumption underlying the NDC target is unrealistic. Namely, the real GDP per working-age population, which is an indicator of productivity, needs to be improved annually by 2.5% on average for 15 years, a high level that has not been observed since the collapse of the economic bubble in the early 1990s. Based on these findings and the data from mitigation scenarios, we conclude that Japan can achieve the NDC target (26% below 2013 levels by 2030) with existing mitigation measures and by resuming operations only at those nuclear power plants that come under the conformity assessment, assuming realistic GDP assumptions. If the government enhances mitigation measures promoting low-carbon technologies that are politically affordable in terms of costs with realistic GDP assumptions, then it would be possible to achieve 27-42% of GHG emissions reduction compared to the 2013 level, including the "no nuclear" scenarios. |
英文关键词 | GHG emissions Climate policy Kaya identity Japan Paris Agreement LMDI analysis |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000471083700028 |
WOS关键词 | DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; INTENSITY ; CONSUMPTION ; WORLD ; CHINA |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184502 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Inst Global Environm Strategies, 2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa 2400115, Japan; 2.Tokyo Inst Technol, Meguro Ku, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Tokyo 1528550, Japan; 3.NewClimate Inst, Clever Str 13-15, D-50668 Cologne, Germany; 4.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Postbus 80-115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kuriyama, Akihisa,Tamura, Kentaro,Kuramochi, Takeshi. Can Japan enhance its 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets? Assessment of economic and energy-related assumptions in Japan's NDC[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019,130:328-340. |
APA | Kuriyama, Akihisa,Tamura, Kentaro,&Kuramochi, Takeshi.(2019).Can Japan enhance its 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets? Assessment of economic and energy-related assumptions in Japan's NDC.ENERGY POLICY,130,328-340. |
MLA | Kuriyama, Akihisa,et al."Can Japan enhance its 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets? Assessment of economic and energy-related assumptions in Japan's NDC".ENERGY POLICY 130(2019):328-340. |
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