Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.062 |
Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms | |
Soummane, Salaheddine1; Ghersi, Frederic1,2; Lefevre, Julien1,3 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 130页码:263-282 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France |
英文摘要 | We analyse the mid-term macroeconomic challenge to Saudi Arabia of a global low-carbon transition reducing oil revenues, versus the opportunity of national energy reforms. We calibrate a compact, dynamic recursive model of Saudi Arabia on original energy-economy data to explore scenarios. We first assess the consequences of oil prices declining from their levels in the New Policies Scenario (NPS) of the IEA, to their levels in its Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS). By 2030, the Saudi economy loses 1.4 GDP points, 1.6 employment points and USD 504 billion trade surplus accumulation. Its cumulated public deficit rises to 92.8% of GDP. National reforms gradually aligning Saudi energy prices on international prices and inducing structural change of Saudi activity away from energy-intensive industries mitigate these costs if a share of the public income from energy-price deregulation is directed to investment. However, they reduce the cumulated trade surplus and fail to control public deficit accumulation. Sensitivity analysis confirms the capacity of national energy reforms to mitigate the activity cost of global mitigation action, but aggravates the threat of an escalating public deficit. These results underline the importance of broader economic and fiscal reforms as part of the ambitious Vision 2030 Saudi initiative. |
英文关键词 | Saudi Arabia Low-carbon transition Hybrid energy-economy modelling Administered energy prices |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000471083700022 |
WOS关键词 | OPEC ; ARABIA ; MARKET ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184495 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CIRED, 45 Bis,Ave Belle Gabrielle, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France; 2.CNRS, 3 Rue Michel Ange, F-75794 Paris 16, France; 3.AgroParisTech, 16 Rue Claude Bernard, F-75231 Paris, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Soummane, Salaheddine,Ghersi, Frederic,Lefevre, Julien. Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019,130:263-282. |
APA | Soummane, Salaheddine,Ghersi, Frederic,&Lefevre, Julien.(2019).Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms.ENERGY POLICY,130,263-282. |
MLA | Soummane, Salaheddine,et al."Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms".ENERGY POLICY 130(2019):263-282. |
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